Demographic indicators are indicators of socio-economic development. Abstract: Demographic indicators as an indicator of the social development of society

Demographic indicators as indicators of social change Demographic indicators can be indicators of social change, both positive and negative. One of these indicators is the out-of-wedlock birth rate, which reached 30% in Russia in the mid-2000s. On the one hand, the growth of illegitimate births has nothing to do with the growth in the number of informal marriages in developed countries, where they are due to the transformation of the family institution and the growth of women's economic independence. "Record" figures were recorded in the degrading rural areas of the North-West of the European part and the Urals, where the share of illegitimate births is 35-40%, and in the Komi-Permyatsk Autonomous District - 62%. in the Urals, Eastern Siberia and Far East high illegitimate birth rate is typical for depressive industrial "cities-factories", mining settlements that do not have a developed socio-cultural urban environment; it exceeds 40% in urban settlements of the Perm, Irkutsk, Magadan, Sakhalin regions. The socialization of unwanted children living in poverty and abandonment, in the long term, leads to the reproduction of marginal forms of adaptation. At the same time, in more prosperous regions, there has been a trend towards the modernization of relations in this area. In 2006, 44% of illegitimate births were registered at the joint application of the spouses, and the proportion of children born to single mothers who are not in both formal and informal unions does not exceed 7%. Another social indicator is the mother's age at childbirth, which increased from 25.3 to 27.0 years from 1990 to 2007. In Russia, the postponing of the birth of children, characteristic of developed countries, for more late deadline in connection with the priority of professional and career growth for women with high level education. Like any innovation, this process begins with the largest cities. Russian women aged 25-29 give birth to children a quarter less than those aged 20-24, and in Moscow and St. Petersburg, on the contrary, 15-20% more often. In federal cities, the shift of births towards older ages was noticeable as early as the first half of the 1990s; now this trend is developing most rapidly in Moscow. In other large cities and regions, economic conditions have not yet developed that provide a significant increase in the number of high-paying jobs for women and contribute to a shift in fertility to older ages. Across the country, the birth rate of young mothers began to decline. In Moscow, already in the first half of the 1990s, early motherhood at the age of 15-19 was rarer than in the country as a whole. AT last years The decline in fertility in the youngest age group was fastest in regions with large urban agglomerations. They already have widespread family planning, even in low-status and low-income groups of the population, which contributes to the reduction of early births. In the republics of the North Caucasus and southern Siberia, which have not completed the demographic transition, the birth rate of young mothers is declining more slowly. The structure of births by mother's age is shifted towards older ages, but for a different reason - the persistence of large families. However, the dynamics of births at the age of 25-29, in contrast to the rest of Russia, was mostly negative, which indicates a trend towards a reduction in large families. However, after the introduction of "maternity capital" in 2007, there were signs of a rejuvenation of the birth rate. Regional dynamics of age-related mortality rates can also be considered as an indicator of social degradation. The main cause of death among the working-age male population was death from external causes, it is high in the North-West, the European North and part of the Urals, in the regions of Eastern Siberia, in the Far East and in almost all autonomous districts of the east of the country (5.5-7.8%). The maximum mortality of men of working age is still characteristic of the most socially problematic regions - the Republic of Tyva and the Komi-Permyatsk Autonomous Okrug (9.6-12.6% in 2006). Differences in male mortality are the main reason for regional differentiation in life expectancy. There are three factors that influence this indicator. The first is related to natural and climatic conditions, this is the so-called "northeast gradient" - a reduction in life expectancy in the direction from the southwest to the northeast. The second factor is the way of life and the prevalence of asocial phenomena, primarily alcoholism. In the Muslim republics of the North Caucasus, where it is minimal, life expectancy is the highest. And only the third factor is the modernizing impact of higher incomes and education: in Moscow, the life expectancy of men is 6-10 years higher than in the neighboring regions of the Center, and the population of the northern oil and gas autonomous districts of the Tyumen region lives 3-7 years longer than the population regions of Central Russia. The lowest life expectancy for men in 2006 was in Koryak Autonomous Okrug (52 years) and Tyva (53 years). In these regions, the negative impact of all factors is summed up, so not only men, but also women (62 years old) live a short life. So low rates longevity of both sexes is an obvious example of social degradation.

DEMOGRAPHIC PROCESSES IN THE PSKOV REGION

Influencedemographicsituationson theprocesses

Rice.5.1. Systemicconnectionsnumberspopulationandhisagestructures.

The total population of the region, first of all, directly or indirectly, determines the size of the demographic burden on the main life-supporting subsystems of the regional socio-economic system - healthcare, transport, telecommunications, housing and communal services. The population size in certain age groups in its own way affects the state of individual subsystems of the regional economy and social sphere. populationpopulationinagebelowable-bodied and its dynamics directly determine the state of systems general education and preschool institutions and, indirectly, the state of the system vocational education, employment of the population and its general standard of living. The latter is due to the temporary withdrawal of part of the economically active population (women) from the economy for the period of maternity leave and parental leave, as well as a concomitant certain decrease in the average per capita income. populationpopulationinable-bodiedage and its dynamics are one of the main factors determining the state of the regional economy. This also applies to the state of the regional system of vocational education and training (retraining) of personnel, and to the overall level of employment and, as a result, to the value of the gross regional product. As a result, the revenues of the regional and local budgets, as well as the average per capita income and standard of living of the population as a whole. populationpopulationinageaboveable-bodied and its dynamics directly determines the magnitude of the demographic burden on the social security system and, indirectly, the employment of the population and its general standard of living. The connection with employment is characterized mainly by the number of pensioners aged 55-65 and the degree of their interest in continuing their labor activity. As for the influence of the population over the working age on the general standard of living, everything here is determined by the ratio of average monthly pensions and the available average per capita income of the population. Under the current situation, when average pensions are less than 50% of the average per capita income of the population, the size of the population of retirement age and the average standard of living of the population of the region are inversely related.

The main characteristics of the demographic situation

low birth rate; relatively high mortality rate

a large proportion of the population above the working age Negative influence migration processes.

Rice.5.2. populationpopulationareason theStartof the year(thousandpeople)

Rice.5.3. pacedecreasenumberspopulationareas

The values ​​of the main demographic indicators that determine the dynamics natural movement population in 2005 are shown in Fig. 5.4. On fig. 5.5 - 5.7 dependencies are shown that characterize the age structure of the birth rate, the dynamics of the reduced birth rate and the trends in the change in birth rates in various age groups. Attention is drawn to the low value of the reduced birth rate, at which, in the conditions of the existing mortality rate, not only expanded reproduction is impossible, but also any significant reduction in the rate of population decline in the region. Comparing the actual values ​​of the birth rate with the values ​​of the mortality and migration rates (Fig. 4), we can conclude that even if a certain decrease in mortality rates is achieved, and migration growth is stimulated due to external migration. coefficient fertility, providing stabilization numbers population areas, must to be, how minimum, in 2 times more, how in the present time .

Rice.5.4. Dynamicsmajordemographicindicators

in the Pskov region.

Fig.5.5.Agestructurefertilityin2007 G.

(live births per 1000 women of the corresponding age).

Fig.5.6.Dynamicsgivencoefficientfertility

(live births per 1,000 women aged 15-45)

Analyzing the dependences of Fig. 5-7, we can conclude that, since 2005, there has been a trend towards an increase in the birth rate in the region as a whole for all age groups. However, it should be noted that this trend is fully manifested only for the age group of 25-39 years, which accounts for only 50% of all births. In other age groups, in particular, in the group of 20 years old - 24 years old, the most significant for general fertility rates, there is a steady decrease in the birth rate reduced to a given age (Fig. 5). Apparently, the trend towards a shift in the maximum birth rate towards older age, characteristic of many European countries, will be observed in the future, so it can be expected that the age group of 25-35 years old will become increasingly important in the process of population reproduction (Fig. 5.7 ).

Fig.5.7.Agestructurefertilityin2006 year

(live births per 1000 women of corresponding age)

and observed trends in its change

Another indicator that largely determines the demographic situation in the region is a fairly high mortality rate, and, first of all, this refers to the mortality rate among the able-bodied population. On fig. 5.9 5.10 shows dependencies characterizing the values ​​and trends of change in the given mortality rates in different age groups.

Rice.5.8. DynamicscoefficientinfantilemortalityinPskovareas.

Rice.5.9. Givenoddsmortality(numberdeceasedon the1000 humanrelevantage) inPskovareasin2006 G.

(
;
;
;
- oddsmortalityinseniorages)

Rice.5.10. Dynamicsgivencoefficientmortalityamongable-bodiedpopulationPskovareas.

Analyzing the dynamics of mortality rates in different age groups (Fig. 10, 11), we can draw the following conclusions:

the region is seeing a steady decline in infant mortality

there is a marked decrease in child (0-4 years) mortality

marked decrease in mortality in all age groups

observed conspicuous decline mortality in age group 45-60 years (in period 2003-2006 y.y. on the 8-10 %);

however, the region is experiencing a marked increase in mortality

The Physical Quality of Life Index (PLI) describes reached level of well-being based on three indicators:

infant mortality rate; life expectancy at age 1; adult literacy rate.

GDP per capita"a good indicator of the level of well-being and physical comfort." Average annual inflation rate"the ability of the government to influence the trends of the economy" and to support the growth of production. Average annual growth rate of the number of employees opportunities to provide jobs that provide people with the income they need for a decent life; Average annual rateurban population growth reflects urban birth rates, rural-to-urban migration, and population pressure on limited agricultural land. The infant mortality rate is considered one of the most adequate indicators of the level of medical care, sanitary living conditions and the availability of family planning services. Diet calorie index(in % of the level that ensures the maintenance of normal vitality and health characterizes the degree of satisfaction of one of the vital needs of people.

Availability of safe drinking water- one of the key indicators of the sanitary conditions of life and a characteristic of the most important factor determining the health of the population of developing countries. Energy consumption per capita reflects the level of comfort, provision of the population with communication and transport services, describes the conditions economic development and employment. Adult literacy rate characterizes the ability of people to acquire knowledge, communicate, participate in economic, social and political activities. Expert assessment of the level of individual freedom reflects satisfaction of one of the most important needs of people, orientation society and its development on the interests of man.

number of murders per 100 thousand people(characteristic of public safety); share of income spent on food(characteristic of the cost of food);

average number of people living in 1 room(characteristic of the availability of living space); share of houses connected to water and electricity systems(characteristic of the quality of living conditions); number of phones per 100 people(characteristic of provision with communication services); proportion of children enrolled in secondary school(characteristics of the development of the education system); infant mortality rate(characteristics of the development of the health care system); expert assessment of the level of ambient noise(characteristic of background noise); average traffic speed during rush hour(characteristic of the intensity of transport flow); integrated air quality assessment, which includes estimates of ozone concentration, the number of days with exceeding the allowable content of sulfur dioxide in the atmosphere and suspended pollutants.

Population quality index

average life expectancy at birth;total fertility rate;proportion of men of marriageable age who are married;share of employees with secondary and higher education;average monthly salary, taking into account the price index

63. The concept of the "third" demographic transition

64. Program documents in the field of population adopted at the UN World Conferences on Population.

1 Oryol State University of Economics and Trade

2 Central Russian Institute of Management - branch of RANEPA

3 Territorial authority Federal Service state statistics for the Oryol region

The effectiveness of the management system at the level of a territorial entity depends on the quality and timely generalization and set of indicators characterizing the socio-economic situation of the region. The final indicators of economic and social policy are presented as indicators of the results of the functioning of the management system and the accuracy of building forecasts and development strategies. In the context of the transition to a program-targeted and anti-crisis management policy for all economic systems, identification and review of indicators of socio-economic development of a particular territory and in comparison with other regions in the ranking has practical and methodological significance. The article identifies two main groups of indicators: economic and socio-demographic, which are calculated and carried out when processing official statistical information and are widely used in assessing trends and development prospects and building socio-economic forecasts. In the anti-crisis management system, indicators can serve to conduct ongoing monitoring of the consolidated results of the effectiveness of the management system in the region, to diagnose the deterioration of the situation in order to take timely preventive measures.

crisis management

demography

indicators

social politics

economy

1. Bazarnova O.A. Three main models in the sphere of modern anti-crisis management / O.A. Bazarnova, A.V. Polyanin, A.A. Slevelova // Bulletin of Orlovsky state university. Series: New Humanities Research. - 2015. - No. 5 (46). - S. 184-187.

2. Efimova O.V. Company sustainable development strategy: analytical aspect / O.V. Efimova // Siberian Financial School. - 2011. - No. 3 (86). – P. 36–40.

3. Parushina N.V. Statistical assessment of the differentiation of the regions of the Central Federal District according to the level of demographic development / N.V. Parushina, I.V. Butenko // National interests: priorities and security. - 2010. - No. 3. - P. 45–49.

4. Socio-economic situation of the Oryol region [Electronic resource]. – Access mode: http://www.gks.ru/region/docl1154/Main.htm (date of access: 05/02/2017).

5. Simchenko N.A. The importance of anti-crisis regulation of the Russian economy in modern conditions/ ON THE. Simchenko, S.Yu. Tsekhla, I.M. Shapovalova // Drucker Bulletin. - 2015. - No. 1. - P. 106–111.

The formation of the socio-economic policy of the region, the development of anti-crisis and strategic programs and objective monitoring of the effectiveness of the implementation of measures to support business structures and sectors of the economy is determined by a high-quality information base based on the collection, grouping and generalization of statistical information. In recent years, the procedures for statistical data processing have been criticized due to the untimely provision of operational information for the purposes of management and monitoring and the impossibility of generalizing information of a narrowly thematic focus on any particular object or area of ​​study. An exception is information on the socio-economic situation of a territorial entity (region), which is represented by a system of indicators (indicators) generally accepted in national statistics.

For the purposes of effective and anti-crisis management of territorial entities, a number of economic and socio-demographic indicators are used in practice, subject to assessment, monitoring and analysis.

For the purpose of socio-economic analysis of the regions, as well as to develop forecasts of socio-economic development for the next year and the medium term, indicators of economic and social nature are used (Fig. 1).

The main parameters characterizing the state and dynamics of the socio-economic development of the regions summarize the general idea of ​​the level and trends in the development of the country's regions. The economic potential of a particular territory depends on the state and level of development of the main areas of activity that form a competitive business infrastructure. For example, in the Oryol region, the leading types of economic activity include: agriculture, manufacturing, construction, transport and communications, and trade.

According to Orelstat, the socio-economic development of the territorial entity in the past year is characterized by the following main economic and social indicators.

The index of industrial production in 2016 amounted to 98.6% compared to 2015. The structure of industrial production by consolidated types of economic activity is represented by the following business segments.

Rice. 1. Indicators of socio-economic development used in the management system of territorial entities

Rice. 2. The structure of industrial production of the Oryol region in 2016

For the development of the economy and social sphere of the region in 2016, 47,873.3 million rubles of investments in fixed assets were used from all sources of financing, or 99.8% in current prices and 94.2% in comparable prices compared to the same period in 2015 Investments in fixed assets, unlike financial investments, characterize the investment activity of all areas of business activity and require additional involvement Money. In 2016, the investment activity of all business segments decreased, which is demonstrated by statistical data on the level of socio-economic development of the regions.

In the Oryol region, the volume construction works in 2016 amounted to 20,259.9 million rubles, or 89.0% in current prices. In comparable prices, this figure was 87.4% compared to the same period in 2015. 351.3 thousand square meters of housing were commissioned. meters, or 73.3% compared to the same period in 2015. This indicator of the development of a territorial entity is significantly lower than the indicator of the previous reporting year (Table 1).

The effectiveness of investment policy is characterized by indices of industrial production and volumes of shipped products, which are analyzed by type of production activity. According to the results of the last two years, the industrial production index of the region remained at the level of 98% (Table 2), which indicates the rate of decline in production in all areas of the production activity of the territorial entity. In the general ranking among 18 regions of the Central Federal District, the Oryol region ranks 12th in terms of growth in shipment volume compared to the previous year.

In the process of a comprehensive assessment of the sustainability of the region's development and the effectiveness of the implementation of anti-crisis policy, the main attention is paid to the specialization of regional production and priorities in regional policy. In the agro-industrial sector for January - December 2016 in all categories of farms, the volume of production Agriculture amounted to 73,182.1 million rubles, or 113.2% compared to the corresponding period in 2015. In 2015, the volume of agricultural production amounted to 64,624.4 million rubles. The growth rate of production in agriculture compared to the previous period was higher and amounted to 123.5%. The structure of agricultural production by categories of farms in 2016 is shown in fig. 3.

Table 1

Indicators of investment in fixed assets

table 2

The volume of shipped goods of own production, performed works and services

Rice. 3. The structure of agricultural products in the farms of the Oryol region in 2016

The largest share in the volume of agricultural production is occupied by farms and individual entrepreneurs. They account for about 71% of the agricultural products market of the territorial entity.

The results of the study of the agro-industrial sector in recent years reflect the trends in increasing the efficiency of the functioning of this sector based on global trends taking place in the world and politics. Experts and specialists in the field of agro-industrial business predict an increase in demand for agricultural products and an increase in their consumer characteristics, technological digitalization of agricultural production, the development of biotechnology, breeding and genetic material, an increase in biofuel consumption to achieve energy independence, reduce carbon dioxide emissions into the environment, and create additional income for agricultural producers. Control economic indicators in the field of agro - industrial production will make it possible to make adjustments to the regional policy and substantiate managerial measures .

Trade is one of the main activities for business entities in the Oryol region. turnover retail for 2016 in comparable prices amounted to 93.6% compared to the corresponding period last year. In the constituent entities of the Russian Federation in 2016, the retail trade turnover decreased by 5.2%. At the same time, the rate of decline significantly decreased compared to the previous year, when the reduction was at the level of 10.0% (Table 3).

Social indicators of the development of a territorial entity characterize the amount of monetary income of the population, the level of migration and unemployment of able-bodied citizens. The standard of living of the population of the Oryol region is characterized by an increase in the nominal average per capita cash income of the population - 101.1% and wages workers - 104.8%. The real values ​​of per capita cash income and wages of citizens were at the level of 93.9% and 97.3%, respectively (Table 4).

The average monthly nominal accrued wages of employees in the Oryol region as a whole for 2016 amounted to 22,890 rubles. per employee. The growth rate of the average monthly salary in comparison with 2015 amounted to 4.8%. The region maintains the growth rate of average monthly wages over the past two years. The real accrued wage characterizes purchasing power wages. This takes into account the change in prices for consumer goods and services compared with the base period. In all periods, the size of real wages did not exceed 100%.

The demographic situation, according to operational information, in 2016 was characterized by a process of natural population decline - the number of deaths exceeded the number of births by 1.5 times. Compared to the same period in 2015, there was a decrease in the number of births and the number of deaths by 271 and 149 people, respectively.

In 2016, the migration loss of the population amounted to 731 people. In other subjects of the Russian Federation, 2,220 more people left the Oryol region than arrived in the region, while there was positive balance international migration (+ 1,489 people). The migration policy positively characterizes the change in the unemployment rate in the region. In general, the Russian Federation has seen a decrease in the unemployment rate. For October - December 2016, it amounted to 5.4%, while for the same period in 2015 the figure was at the level of 5.7%. In the region, as of January 1, 2017, the number of officially registered unemployed decreased by 6.0% compared to January 1, 2016 (Table 5). The level of fixed unemployment, like a year earlier, amounted to 1.2%.

Among the employed population, the largest number of workers is observed in the field of manufacturing, trade, education, public administration, healthcare and social services.

The results of socio-economic policy are reflected in the formation of the final financial result of the activities of business structures in the region. Among the final financial results in the statistical information system, the balanced financial result and profit are analyzed. The balanced financial result is the final financial result identified on the basis of accounting all business transactions of organizations. The balanced financial result is calculated as profit minus loss. In 2016, the profit of profitable organizations amounted to 16,796.7 million rubles, or 99.2% compared to 2015 (Table 6).

Table 3

Turnover indicators in actual and comparable prices

Table 4

Indicators of cash income of the population and average monthly wages

Table 5

Unemployment rates in the Oryol region

Table 6

Indicators of the financial result of organizations in the Oryol region

Thus, a comprehensive analysis of indicators of the socio-economic situation of a particular territory makes it possible to assess the dynamics and trends in indicators and make informed management decisions in the field of planning and management and justify the growth or decline of individual indicators. For example, in the Oryol region, based on the analysis of socio-economic indicators, an increase in the volume of shipped goods of own production and agricultural production in all categories of farms was stated, which is statistically confirmed, since the region specializes in agro-industrial production. On the basis of indicators of socio-economic development of the regions, integral estimates of various aspects of the level of socio-economic development of the country are calculated. The monitoring results are included in the reports of the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia on the current situation in the economy of the Russian Federation and trends in the near future.

Bibliographic link

1.3 System of demographic security indicators. Criteria levels of indicators of demographic security

The demographic situation (otherwise the situation) is the state of demographic processes, the composition and distribution of the population at a certain time in a certain territory. The concept is based on the Greek root: demos - people. The science of demography deals with the study of the demographic situation. The demographic situation within any territory consists of such demographic processes as fertility, mortality, marriage, termination of marriage.

It should be noted that the state of the population reproduction regime directly depends on the level of socio-economic development of the country, as well as on the social structure of society. It is also necessary to take into account the fact that state of the art demographic processes will largely depend on the demographic events of the past.

The characteristics of the demographic situation include:

1. assessment of the size, age and sex structure of the population, reproduction parameters;

2. analysis of changes in demographic processes;

3. Forecasting trends and assessing demographic impacts.

The characterization of the demographic situation is not limited to a quantitative description and qualitative assessment of demographic processes. Changing the situation in the desired direction in accordance with the goal, which is the topic of demographic policy, requires an understanding of the factors that gave rise to certain problems and their manageability. Considering these factors, it makes sense to conditionally divide them into two groups. The first group, which includes endogenous factors, is represented by the characteristics of the population itself: its age and sex structure and reproduction parameters. The second group, which includes exogenous factors, is represented by external, mainly socio-economic influences.

Thus, the demographic situation with its quantitative characteristics and qualitative assessment is, in fact, a comprehensive comprehensive idea of ​​the population as a factor and criteria for the socio-economic development of a particular territory.

The composition of the population is a nomenclature, a list of elements that make up the population as a set of people. The demographic composition includes the division of the population into men and women. The population, differentiated by age, can be divided into groups. Grouping, performed on a qualitative basis, represents a classification. For example, depending on such a qualitative feature as ability to work, three groups of the population are distinguished: younger than able-bodied, able-bodied, and one that is older than able-bodied.

The population can be divided into groups and quantitatively. Typically, the distribution of the population by sex and age is in one-year (for each individual year of age) and five-year age groups. The latter is given in standard groupings: 0-4 years, 5-9 years, 10-14, 15-19, etc. Such groupings are used by statistical authorities when developing population census data and current records. Sometimes ten-year groups are also used (0-9, 10-14, etc.).

Population structure is the ratio between homogeneous elements or numerically defined groups. The simplest is the gender structure: the percentage of men and women in the total population. There are also age, age-sex structures, distributions by residence time, etc. Structure, i.e. the distribution of the population by groups can be expressed not only as a percentage, but also in shares, ppm.

A generalizing characteristic of the age distribution of the population is its average age. It can be calculated for the entire population as a whole, for different age groups and for individual contingents. An example of the latter is the average age of the employed or economically active population.

Sex and age are the main demographic parameters of a person, and the age and sex structure, respectively, is one of the basic characteristics of the population. These data are in demand in almost all spheres of public life related to the life of people.

The classification of indicators characterizing the demographic situation is shown in Figure 1.

Fig.1. Classification of indicators characterizing the demographic situation

Figure 1 shows the variety of indicators characterizing the demographic situation. The calculation of these indicators is presented in table 1.

Table 1 - Calculation of indicators characterizing the demographic situation

In our opinion, demographic security characterizes the protection of the socio-economic development of society from internal and external demographic threats, ensuring at least the preservation of the geopolitical, economic and ethnic status of the state.

Table 2 - System of indicators of demographic security

Demographic processes in the pre-capitalist period

The demographic process is a set of historical events of the same name that affect the reproduction of the population.

revolutions

A demographic event is an event that takes place in a population and affects the process of reproduction.

The problems of the relationship between economic and demographic development in the pre-capitalist era were interpreted exclusively from the standpoint of demographic determinism, based on the assertion of the natural and biological conditionality of demographic dynamics. In the works of thinkers of past eras, the problem of the ratio of population and resources was posed in a simplified form, suggesting both the possibility of overpopulation and underpopulation.

In the 5th century BC. the ancient Chinese philosopher Confucius first raised the question of the optimal population in the context of the possibility of the existence of some ideal relationship between the amount of land and the population.

The ancient philosophers Plato and Aristotle considered the problem of overpopulation as the most acute social problem, making it dependent on the availability of land resources.

The problem of the ratio of population and resources was central in the works of thinkers of the feudal era, who considered the possibility of both positive and negative consequences. rapid growth population.

Representatives of the early Middle Ages (T. More, T. Campanella, F. Aquinas) put forward the thesis about the social utility of increasing the population. Their populationist ideas were further developed in the works of thinkers of the era of primitive accumulation of capital (T. Men, A. Seurat, S. Fortrey), who believed that a large population, including the working population, is the basis of the power and wealth of the state. At the same time, there was another point of view

(D. Townsend, R. Wallace), according to which excessive population growth

could pose a real threat of overpopulation.

Demography is a science that studies the population size, natural reproduction of the population, population structures and population migration (resettlement), as well as the changes that occur in them, using its inherent methods. causes and consequences of these changes, their regularities. It is necessary to be aware of the interconnections and interdependence of the economy and demography, because Every year, natural resources are becoming less and less, and their quality is rapidly declining.

Demographics is used both in marketing research of private firms and in some government studies of the country's economic sphere.

As far as government research is concerned, demography allows one to count, for example, young people who are able to enter a higher education institution, and therefore, possible skilled workers for a certain period of time, which is directly related to the country's labor resources.

As far as municipal authorities are concerned, facilities such as the construction of supermarkets, shopping centers or parking is also impossible without knowledge of certain demographic indicators.

Almost any big company will be interested in labor migration, both skilled and unskilled workers. Since usually immigrants are ready to agree to work on more favorable terms. Moreover, they create competition among workers, which is certainly beneficial for the entrepreneur.

The market is one of the most important components of economic science, and it is focused on the consumer, that is, directly on the people living in a certain area. Demography, in turn, studies population dynamics. Accordingly, many economic studies will have recourse to demographics.

In the 1960s and 1970s, the neo-Malthusian thesis was circulated according to which elevated level fertility and existence large families hinder economic development and contribute to the persistence of poverty (which is especially true for third world countries). However, already in the 1980s, it was proclaimed that the primary role for economic growth is played not by the accumulation of physical capital in the form of tangible assets, but by human capital and technological progress.

Modern economists also realize that demographic growth and its dynamics over time are one of the most important factors of economic development. In recent years, scientists have noted an increase in average life expectancy (a decrease in the death rate), and as a result, a decrease in the fertility of women and the birth rate, which increases the dependence coefficient, i.e. increase in the proportion of dependents in the total population of working age. In addition, with the reduction in family size, one can observe an increase in the economic employment of women. The decrease in the number of children in the family becomes the reason for the growth of labor productivity in the long run. Parents are able to spend more on education, cultural upbringing and the health of their children (future workforce). We can talk about such a phenomenon as the "demographic dividend" of economic growth, which contributes to an increase in savings, savings and investment. The reduction in the birth rate, in turn, leads to a redistribution of consumption in favor of the poor, which means that poverty reduction can also be observed.