Dynamics of lending to individuals. Features of lending and dynamics of lending to legal entities and individuals in modern conditions

This article presents an analysis of the lending market individuals in Russia, as well as the most pressing problems of the population lending market in modern conditions. As part of the analysis of the current state of the population lending market, the authors considered: the volume of lending from 2011 to 2015, the dynamics of overdue debt, the weighted average interest rates on loans to individuals, and the rating of banks in terms of the volume of the loan portfolio in the consumer lending market. The authors identified the following main problems of modern lending to individuals in Russia: low solvency of the population, growth in overdue loans, high interest rates, tightening of credit policies by banks. In general, all the problems of lending to individuals in Russia come down to one thing - the inaccessibility of loans for the population. Thus, the situation in the lending market is unstable. An improved approach to problem solving is required.

credit debt

1. Borovikova E.S. Problems and prospects of modern lending in Russia [Electronic resource]. – Access mode: http://sci-article.ru/stat.php?i=14023214414 (date of access: 04/15/2016).

2. Site data: http://raexpert.ru (date of access: 04/16/2016).

3. Kokorina M.V. Problems of bank lending to individuals on present stage in the Russian Federation / M.V. Kokorina // Young scientist. - 2014. - No. 12. - P. 137-139.

4. Kugaevskikh K.V. Assessment of bank lending in 2015 / K.V. Gugaevsky // Young scientist. - 2015. - No. 12. - P. 431-433.

5. Lukoveyko A.S. Banking sector of Primorsky Krai: state, problems, prospects // A.S. Lukoveyko, M.A. Chetaykina // modern science: current problems and ways to solve them. - 2014. - No. 13. - P. 16-20.

6. Sytnik M.M. Bank lending market in the Russian Federation: an analytical aspect / M.M. Sytnik // Economic Sciences. - 2015. - No. 6. - P. 9-16.

Today, lending is the main direction of banking activity and the main source of income. Individuals account for more than 25% of loans in overall structure loan portfolio.

Nowadays, a loan for a consumer is often the only way out of a difficult situation. Today, banks provide loans not only for the acquisition of expensive property, but also in ordinary everyday life: for the purchase of real estate, cars, for education, consumer needs.

However, in this segment of bank lending, certain problems arise, primarily related to the high insolvency of the population.

Financial experts note the high level of debt load of the population. Currently, more than 5 million Russians have problems with the repayment of borrowed funds. The credit debt of the population is 3 trillion. rubles, and increases every year.

Today, banks are not sure about the reliability and financial viability of their customers, as there is a high risk of non-return Money issued on credit. In this connection, each bank, at its own discretion, determines the risks and lays them into high bank interest and measures to tighten credit policy.

Thus, the research topic in modern conditions of economic development, and in particular the retail lending market, is quite relevant.

The object of the study is the retail lending market in the Russian Federation.

The subject of the study is the current state of the retail lending market in Russia and the problems that arise in this segment of lending.

The purpose of the study is to analyze the current state of the retail lending market in Russia and to substantiate the problems that arise in this segment of lending.

Achieving this goal required solving the following tasks:

Analyze general state the retail lending market in Russia;

Consider the problems of modern lending to individuals.

The theoretical and methodological basis of the study are the works of domestic scientists, data from state and regional statistics.

In the process of research, analysis and synthesis, comparison, generalization, statistical, logical and other scientific research methods were used.

Certain problems are currently arising in the retail lending market, primarily related to the high insolvency of the population, but despite this, the volume of loans issued to the population tends to grow (Table 1).

Table 1

The volume of loans issued in Russian banks to individuals in 2011-2015

In general, the volume of lending to individuals is growing. During the analyzed period, the volume of loans issued in Russian banks to individuals increased by 113% and amounted to 11,883 billion rubles.

However, until 2013, banks increased lending to individuals at the highest rates. Thus, the volume of loans to the population increased in 2012 by 39.4% - up to 7,737 billion rubles, and in 2013 - by 28.6% and amounted to 9,957 billion rubles.

But over the past 2 years, these figures have decreased significantly. Thus, the volume of loans to the population in 2014 increased by 13.9%, and in 2015 - by only 4.9%.

From January to December 2014, the volume of lending to the population increased by 14%, and at the end of 2015 for the same period decreased by 6.5% (Fig. 1).

And over the past 12 months, there has been a further drop in lending (Fig. 2).

Rice. 1. The volume of lending at the beginning and at the end of 2014-2015 (million rubles)

Rice. 2. The volume of the lending market for the last 12 months (million rubles)

Thus, from April 2015 to March 2016, the volume of lending decreased by 4%. The resumption of lending in the previous volumes, according to experts, is expected no earlier than mid-2016.

Thus, the situation in terms of lending to the population is not stable. Despite the fact that in general the volume of lending to individuals is growing, however, its growth rates are not significant. In 2015, the volume of lending to individuals decreased by an average of 5-7%.

In Primorsky Krai, the volume of bank lending to individuals as of January 1, 2015 amounted to 148 billion rubles. Growth for the year - no more than 7.2% - and this is a record low rate over the past 5 years. So, in the period 2013-2014 - growth was at the level of 38.8%, 2012-2013 - 48.1%, 2011-2012 - 42.7%. Thus, in Primorsky Krai, there is also a sharp decline in lending to individuals.

In 2015, banks reduced the level of approval of loan applications by 4-5 times, and this year the requirements for borrowers are only getting tougher. Even now, banks reject 94.7% of their applications for loans.

Today, banks are not sure about the reliability and financial viability of their customers, as there is a high risk of non-repayment of funds issued under a loan agreement.

Currently, more than 5 million Russians have problems with the repayment of borrowed funds. The credit debt of the population is 3 trillion. rubles, and increases every year. Moreover, there are delays even on secured loans: 11% - on car loans and 3.5% - on mortgages.

Each Russian owes an average of about 76.9 thousand rubles. In 2014, this figure was at the level of 62.4 thousand rubles, in 2013 - 51 thousand rubles, in 2012 - 36 thousand rubles, in 2011 - 27.4 thousand rubles. Thus, for 5 years, the credit burden has increased almost 3 times.

Currently, the low solvency of the population is the most acute problem of modern lending in Russia. The growth of overdue debts is associated, first of all, with a decrease in real incomes of the population, an increase in inflation (according to the results of 2015, inflation was more than 8%, wage growth was about 4-5%) and an increase in unemployment.

Also, the growth of overdue debt is affected by the high debt load of the population: today, about 60% of Russians have more than 1 outstanding loan.

At the end of 2015, 25% of borrowers have two loans, 18% - three loans. Significantly compared to 2014, the number of citizens servicing five or more loans has increased - from 6 to 19%. Currently, on average, the debtor spends 35-50% of his family budget on payments to banks.

Due to the high insolvency of the population, the extremely limited financial opportunities of citizens, activities in this sector of bank lending have a large number of risks.

Significant banking risks cause an increase in interest rates (Chart 3).

Rice. 3. Weighted average interest rates on loans to individuals, % per annum

Rice. 4. Overdue debt on loans to individuals (except for mortgages), %

As we can see, among lending to individuals, there is a trend towards an increase in interest rates. Interest rates on loans to individuals up to 1 year increased by 3.08%, and on long-term loans by 0.93%. The largest increase in interest rates was noted at the beginning of last year.

Changes in interest rates on loans, in turn, directly affect the solvency of borrowers, their growth can cause an increase in non-payments and an increase in overdue debts.

The increase in the cost of loans, and as a result, their unavailability for the population in 2015, was mainly due to an increase in key rate the Central Bank in 2014 to 17%.

For bank customers, an increase in the bank rate means that:

1) the interest rate on deposits will increase;

2) Mortgage and consumer credit will rise in price.

Significant banking risks also lead to a tightening of credit policy:

High requirements for the borrower;

Extension of the term early repayment credit;

Adding to the "black list" of the client with a slight delay in payments on the loan;

Reducing the number of loans provided to customers with bad credit history;

An increase in the number of documents for granting a loan and the dependence of the rate, the loan amount on the availability of these documents, etc.).

The decrease in real incomes of the population, high insolvency, the problem of loan defaults cause distrust on the part of the bank towards its potential customers. In this connection, banks place high demands on borrowers, they are more attentive to assessing their solvency.

At the first stage of applying for a loan, the borrower must provide reliable information about himself, his work activity, income, the composition of his property, family members, etc. When evaluating a potential borrower, the most important parameters are income and credit history. And already at this stage, the client may not pass the check for solvency.

Many banks, in order to reduce their risks, require clients to provide security in the form of a pledge of property (not every citizen owns valuable property), third-party guarantees, and a bank guarantee (it is almost impossible for an individual to receive it). On the one hand, securing a loan allows you to get more low interest on a loan, but on the other hand, it almost always incurs additional costs for the client.

To compensate for high risks, the bank sets high percent on credit. Also banks in without fail issue a payment schedule, which indicates the amounts and terms of payment of the loan. AT recent times there is an increase in the term of early repayment of the loan.

The tightening of the credit policy of banks is pushing the least wealthy Russians into microfinance organizations. In 2015, their portfolio grew by 21% and the number of clients by 53%.

There is also an increase in the popularity of express loans, loans that do not require collateral, etc.

However, despite the tightening of credit policy, overdue debt continues to grow (Fig. 4) .

As we can see, since 2013 there has been an increase in debt. From 2013 to 2014, overdue debt increased by 0.8%, in 2014-2015 - by 2.5% and in the last year - by 4%. According to experts, the growth of overdue debt in 2016 will be moderate and amount to 13%.

And the only way out in this situation, according to experts, could be a massive debt restructuring in order to reduce the share of payments for loan servicing.

In general, all the problems of lending to individuals in Russia come down to one thing - the inaccessibility of loans for the population due to high interest rates and tightening of credit policy.

The system of lending to the population in Russia, as well as throughout the world, is arranged according to the principle of a pyramid - the repayment and servicing of old loans is ensured by attracting new ones. But as rates remain high and lending slows, this pyramid scheme is no longer working. As a result, people pay more than they borrow.

The decline in incomes of the population will raise the rate on loans even higher - as the risks of banks are growing.

The list of key players in the consumer lending market remains unchanged (Table 2).

So, 1st, 2nd and 3rd places are occupied respectively by Sberbank, VTB24 and Rosselkhozbank, followed by Gazprombank and Alfa-Bank. An even lower position is occupied by such banks as the Bank of Moscow, Rosbank, Raiffeisenbank, etc.

AT last years the process of lending to individuals is at the stage of recovery. Today, lending to individuals requires an improved approach to solving existing problems both in the field of expanding lending facilities and in the field of loan conditions.

The stability of the credit system of the Russian Federation and the growth of its qualitative indicators should be priority issues, because. a well-defined lending mechanism ensures the sustainable development of the country's economy.

Bibliographic link

Experts from the project of the All-Russian Popular Front “For the Rights of Borrowers” ​​updated the details of Russia’s credit card for 2017. According to the Bank of Russia, the debt of individuals reached 12.1 trillion rubles, having increased by 12.6% over the year. But the share of overdue debt amounted to 7% (846.6 billion rubles) - the last time such a low level was observed at the beginning of 2015.

Dynamics of credit and overdue debts of individuals

*Source: Bank of Russia data, calculations of the ONF project “For the rights of borrowers”

The improvement in the situation with overdue debts is also confirmed by the data of the National Bureau of Credit Histories (NBKI). According to him, over the past year, the share of "arrears" on consumer loans decreased from 21.5% to 20.6%, on car loans - from 9.7 to 9.5%, on mortgages - from 3.9 to 3.1% . The only lending segment where the share of "bad" debts increased was credit cards (from 18.8% to 19.8%).

Dynamics of overdue debts of individuals by types of loans

According to the NBKI, the largest increase last year occurred in car loans - the number of cars sold on credit increased by 29.2%. In just a year, citizens bought 713.6 thousand "credit" cars. In second place is the mortgage. According to the Agency for Housing Mortgage Lending (AHML), for 11 months of 2017, 24% of loans were issued mortgage loans more than a year earlier. A total of 935.6 thousand such contracts were concluded. And the number consumer loans, according to the NBKI, increased by 20.9% and amounted to 15.25 million units.

Due to high growth rates mortgage lending the structure of the debt of individuals is changing. In 2017, the share of mortgage debt almost equaled consumer loan debt. Mortgages now account for 43%, while a few years ago it did not exceed 30%. Car loans account for about 12% of all debt, the rest - consumer loans, including credit cards.

Individual debt structure by types of loans

*Data from AHML, NBKI, Bank of Russia, calculations of the For the Rights of Borrowers project

In terms of each Russian household, the average debt on loans as of January 1, 2018 amounted to 214.9 thousand rubles, including overdue debt - 15 thousand rubles. The level of debt load - the ratio of the average debt to the average annual family income - reached 22%.

The rapid growth in lending last year, with a simultaneous decrease in the share of "arrears" in general, is a positive signal for the economy.

As for the savings of Russians on bank deposits and deposits, as of January 1, 2018, their volume amounted to 26.09 trillion rubles. Including 79% accounted for funds in rubles, 21% - in foreign currency. Over the past year, the volume of deposits increased by 7.4%. In terms of each household in the Russian Federation, the average deposit amounted to 462 thousand rubles.

The largest amount of savings is traditionally held by residents of Moscow and St. Petersburg (1.9 million and 920.7 thousand rubles on average per household, respectively). Households of the Chechen Republic and the Republic of Ingushetia hold the smallest amount of savings in banks (39.3 thousand and 58.4 thousand rubles, respectively).

“Trends in the lending market show that the structure of debt load in Russia is becoming more “healthy” and is approaching the world. In relative terms, “long” mortgages with more moderate rates and “long” car loans are gradually replacing “expensive” consumer loans, which is more profitable for citizens,” said Viktor Klimov, project manager of the ONF “For the Rights of Borrowers”.

According to the NBKI, as of November 2017, the PTI indicator - the ratio of the monthly loan payment to the borrower's monthly income - averaged 25%. This means that the average borrower sends 1/4 of the monthly income to repay the loan.

“In addition, against the background of the growth of mortgages and an increase in the debt burden, the topic of creating tools that will allow both market participants and the borrower to experience temporary difficulties that are inevitable in such long-term relationships with the least risks and losses is becoming especially relevant. The All-Russian Popular Front will seek an institutional solution to this problem,” summed up Viktor Klimov.

RIA Rating - 26 Feb. At the end of 2014, despite the unstable economic situation, the loan portfolio of Russian banks increased by 11.6 trillion rubles, or 28.6%. Growth rates last year were significantly higher than in the previous two years - 19.2% and 18.3% in 2013 and 2012, respectively. As of January 1, the loan portfolio reached 52.1 trillion rubles, of which 29.5 trillion accounted for the corporate loan portfolio, and loans to individuals - 11.3 trillion rubles.

At the same time, in the fourth quarter of 2014, Russian banks showed a phenomenal increase in the loan portfolio - 13.5%. For comparison, quarterly growth in the first three quarters of last year was at the level of 4-4.5%. The last time such a good quarterly result was observed in the third quarter of fat 2007. The high nominal growth rates of the loan portfolio in 2014 and especially in the fourth quarter were largely due to currency revaluation. Excluding currency revaluation, the growth rate of deposits in 2014, according to calculations, was at the level of 15% (17% in 2013). It should be noted that the currency revaluation affected the dynamics of loans to non-financial organizations the most. Thus, nominally loans to legal entities increased by 31.3% in 2014, and only by 13.0%, taking into account currency revaluation.

The cooling of consumer lending was one of the most important trends in 2014. This trend began to take shape back in 2013 under the influence of restrictions imposed by the monetary authorities, as well as due to fears of market overheating in certain segments. In 2014, the slowdown in retail lending accelerated slightly, partly due to an increase in the savings rate due to lower real disposable incomes and lower consumer confidence. In general, due to low nominal growth rates in 2014, the share of retail loans in the total loan portfolio of Russian banks decreased from 24.6% as of January 1, 2014 to 21.7% as of January 1, 2015. Most likely, in 2015, the slowdown in consumer lending will continue and a relatively large-scale reduction in the volume of retail loans will be observed.

To study the situation in the context of individual credit institutions, RIA Rating analysts prepared a ranking of banks in terms of loan portfolio as of January 1, 2015. The ranking includes data on 769 Russian banks (non-banking credit institutions are excluded from the ranking), which have published their statements in accordance with Form No. 101 on the website of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation in accordance with the Instruction of the Bank of Russia No. 192-U and Letter of the Bank of Russia No. 165-T. Ranking methodology provides for data aggregation turnover sheets banks.

Private banks "pushed" the state ones a little

At the end of 2014, about 37% of credit institutions (283 banks) showed negative growth rates in their loan portfolio. This is noticeably more than the result of previous years, even despite the significant positive impact of the currency revaluation in 2014. For example, at the end of 2013, a decrease in the loan portfolio was observed in 30% of banks, and at the end of 2012, only 20% of banks were characterized by negative dynamics. The multiple growth in the share of banks with negative dynamics is the result of a slowdown in growth rates for many niche players (primarily retail banks), as well as a reflection of instability in the economy and the banking system, which mostly hits small players. As a result, among the TOP-100 banks in terms of loan portfolio, the negative dynamics in 2014 was shown by half as many credit institutions (18%) as compared to the result of the banking system as a whole.

The highest growth rates of the loan portfolio in 2014 were demonstrated by private banks. Over the year, the loan portfolio of private banks increased by 39.5%, against growth of 32.6% for state-owned banks and 15.6% for foreign banks. The higher growth rates of private banks compared to state-owned banks most likely resulted from the imposition of sanctions by Western countries against some state-owned banks. Growth leaders among large private banks were: FC Otkritie Bank (loan portfolio grew by 1.4 times or RUB 905 billion), ALFA-BANK (+40% or RUB 465 billion) and Promsvyazbank (+49% or RUB 279 billion).

At the same time, Sberbank demonstrated the largest absolute increase in the loan portfolio in 2014 - by 4.2 trillion rubles to 16.6 trillion rubles. The second place in terms of absolute growth in 2014 was occupied by VTB Bank, whose loan portfolio increased by 1.6 trillion rubles or 38% in 2014. Despite the reduction in growth rates of state-owned banks, among the five largest banks in terms of absolute growth in the loan portfolio, four credit institutions are state-owned. In general, the four largest state-owned banks in terms of loan portfolio in 2014 provided 61% of the total increase in loans in the Russian banking system.

The largest absolute reduction in the loan portfolio over the year was observed at HCF Bank - by 59.8 billion rubles, or by 18.6%. Russian Standard Bank came second in terms of the absolute reduction in the loan portfolio - a decrease of 56.6 billion rubles, or 18.9%. These two retail banks led the decline due to the cooling of the consumer lending market, as well as due to the securitization of the loan portfolio by HCF Bank. According to , in the short term, the pace of lending to individuals will continue to decline due to an increase in the cost of funding, an increase in delinquency and a decrease in demand for loans due to an increase in the propensity to save. Therefore, this year, retail banks are likely to again become outsiders in terms of loan portfolio dynamics.

The increase in delinquency accelerated by 3 times

The improvement in the situation with payment discipline, which was observed in 2013, was disrupted in 2014 by a significant weakening of the ruble, as well as economic and political instability. Arrears to Russian banks in 2014 increased by 580 billion rubles to 1.98 trillion rubles. For comparison, in 2013, the increase in the absolute amount of overdue debt was at the level of 140 billion rubles, and in 2012 it was only 124 billion rubles.

In addition, it should be taken into account that in the past year, banks were somewhat more active in “getting rid of” overdue debts. According to estimates, at the end of 2014, overdue debts worth 120-150 billion rubles were sold to collectors, in addition, when securitizing and selling homogeneous portfolios, banks also got rid of 15-30 billion rubles of overdue loans. For comparison, in 2013, banks in total got rid of delays in the amount of about 140 billion rubles. Thus, taking into account the sale of overdue loans in 2014, overdue loans increased by 740 billion rubles (according to Russian standards), against 280 billion in 2013.

Since the growth rate of overdue debt turned out to be significantly higher than the growth rate of the loan portfolio, the share of overdue debt increased from 3.46% as of January 1, 2014 to 3.82% as of January 1, 2015. In general, the share of delinquency still remains at a relatively low level at the beginning of 2013. Most likely, in 2015 its growth will continue to about 4.5-5.5% by the beginning of 2016.

The dynamics of the share of overdue debt in different segments of loans differed markedly. While the share of overdue loans to the corporate sector in 2014 grew very slightly - from 4.1% to 4.2%, the loan portfolio of individuals showed an increase by 1.5 percentage points to 5.9%. The stabilization of the situation with overdue loans to legal entities was largely due to rapid growth the amount of loan debt due to currency revaluation. While the dynamics of delinquency on loans to retail customers was affected by the slowdown in the growth of retail lending.

At the end of 2014, about 60% of Russian banks were characterized by an increase in the share of overdue debt. At the same time, the largest banks showed slightly worse result. Among the TOP-100 largest banks, 64 banks were characterized by an increase in the share of delinquency in 2014. This is due to the fact that the largest number of retail banks, which experienced the greatest increase in delinquency, are in the TOP-100 in terms of the size of the loan portfolio.

Svyaznoy Bank showed the most significant increase in the percentage of overdue payments in 2014. The share of overdue debt in which increased by more than 19 percentage points to 31.3% as of January 1, 2015. Another leader in the growth of overdue loans was MTS-Bank - an increase of 12 percentage points to 19.9% ​​as of January 1, 2015. As of January 1, 2015, the leaders in terms of the share of overdue among the TOP-100 banks, in addition to Svyaznoy Bank and MTS-Bank, were UNIASTRUM BANK - 16.4%, Renaissance Credit - 16.2% and Russian Standard Bank - 15.4%.

Gloomy prospects

Ekimova E.A. Analysis of the state and dynamics of consumer lending in Russia // Economics and business: theory and practice. - 2018. - No. 1. — pp. 45-49.

ANALYSIS OF THE STATE AND DYNAMICS OF THE CONSUMER

LENDING IN ROSS AI

E.A. Ekimova, student

Vladivostok State University economy and service

(Russia, Vladivostok)

Annotation. Consumer lending is a fairly popular bank in skim product among Russian citizens. Acquisition of housing, car loans, loans for urgent needs, as well as a loans for various goods and services -all this helps people maintain a decent standard of living and satisfy their needs. This type of lending is one of the main sources of about cent income for Russian banks, but at the same time carries certain risks. Chief among them is the risk of default. capabilities. Despite this , crediting b contributes to the development of not only the banking sector, but also the country's economy as a whole. IN 2014— In 2015, the Russian economy experienced certain economic difficulties. about sti associated with foreign economic sanctions and the instability of the ruble. Into me This article deals with issues related to determining the place of consumerlending in the credit system Russian Federation. The point sp is substantiated e according to which consumer lending is an important component for the development of the country's economy and the banking system, and also serves to improve the welfare of citizens. In the context of the category of collateralized and unsecured loans and Tov analyzes the indicators and trends in the development of this type of lending.

Keywords : consumer lending, mortgages, credit cards, well and personal lending e , key rate, car loans, cash loans, credit and you are in the shops POS lending , credit market, banks, consumers, ur about the vein of the welfare of citizens.

One of the important economic factors e development of the country and functionaries a of the banking system as a whole is the development of lending, including credit and of individuals. Consumer lending in Russia plays an important role and has been actively developing in the last decade. This is connected both with the active policy of the banks themselves and with the low level of well-being of the population. Cr e dita for consumer needs allowed I allow the population to purchase various m a material goods without the accumulation of funds. This topic is also relevant because consumer loans a This contributes to the accelerated development of the consumer market and the banking sector, and also increases payment about ability and increases the level of well-being with the standing of the citizens.

In the legislation of the Russian Federation under the requirements and body loan meansfunds provided by a lender to a borrower on the basis of a loan agreement about thief, loan agreements, including with and With use of electronic means of payment e Ms., for purposes unrelated to implemented and loan of entrepreneurial activity.

The entire consumer credit market about can be conditionally divided into two and the categories: secured loans and unsecured oh you. Consider in detail each of the categories.

A secured loan is a loan secured e secured by property.This category includes all mortgages and car loans.

Mortgage credit lending- long-term a credit that is provided to a legal entity or individual by banks secured by real estate: land, industrial and residential buildings, e wedges, structures.

It is a fairly popular way to purchase housing in Russia. Ra With look at the statistics for this type of kr e reading. Major mortgage banks about th market in Russia are Sberbank (50% of the market), VTB, Rosselkhozbank,Gazprombank. For ease of comparison, we take data for three similar e rioda.

Table 1 . Selected indicators characterizing the activities of credit institutions a tions in the market of mortgage housing lending

At the end of 2014, the Central Bank underraised the key rate to 17%, which, of course, help t voval and growth rates on mortgages. This fact, and also bad economic and The situation in the country as a whole and the devaluation of the ruble did not contribute to an increase in demand in the mortgage market. But right and The government managed to react in time, and in 2016 the situation improved, which and led to an increase in demand for this type of credit and tovania.

For 10 months of 2017, the number of s of these mortgages increased by 51.9% in compared to 2015 and by 16.3% compared e nii with last year for the same period e rhod. Such a positive trend I not only with the strengthening of the ruble and about power-law stabilization of the Russian economy about nomics, but also with a decrease in IP rates about current lending. This sp o there is a decrease in the key rate of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation – at the end of October this year, the key rate will be reduced increased from 8.5% to 8.25%.

This and the following years may become e cor data on the volume of mortgage issuance.

“Following the results of 2017, mortgages in the amount of more than 1.8 trillion rubles will be issued in the country, and the portfolio will exceed the milestone of 5 trillionrub. Next year, mortgage issuance volumes will already exceed 2.2 trillion rubles, and the portfolio will approach the mark of 6 trillion rubles,” – such data are provided by the and Department of Mortgage Loans a Andrey Osipov .

At the same time, from the data in the table d but that the debt on mortgage loans also has a positive trend a niyu. In 2017, compared to 2016, it increased by 13.4% over ten months. O b The total debt on housing loans amounted to almost 4.7 trillion rubles as of July 1, 2017, of which its overdue debt -71.5 million rubles. At the same time, according to the data for the first six months of 2015, the volume of debt on housing loans amounted to 3.6 trillion rubles, and the overdue debt was almost 53 million rubles. Such dynamics can lead to a mortgage crisis, which already happened in the US in 2007-2008. .

Car loans remain one of the most popular purchase aid shadows of cars. For most Ro with siyan this is the only way available. The total number of loans issued in 2016 increased compared to 2015 by13.7% and amounted to 552.4 thousand. For 8 m e months of 2017, the volume increased by 87% compared to the same period about last year and amounted to 261.8 thousand, and about b the total amount was 196.5 billion rubles .

Second category i consumer lending– These are unsecured loans. These include cash loans, e smart cards and credits in merchants h kah or POS lending.

Household spending at the end of 2016 a lower, including on credit cards R there, the debts on them were greatly reduced. And although this situation at the end of the year is normal, since in December debts a funded by New Year's bonuses and three eleventh salary» , December 2016 provided more than 70% of the annual reduction e niya of the volume of debt on cards. For example, in 2015 such a decrease from o set 25% . In 2017, you are watching t a positive trend. The number of new loans in the credit card segment grew by 22%, and the volume of approved limits by 31%. A total of 38 were issued5.66 thousand cards with a total limit of 15.87 m billion rubles.

One of the actively developing and The second type of lending in Russia is POS lending. In POS-lending, credits for desired goods are issued to the buyer directly at the point of sale. Implementation this process carried out through mutually beneficial cooperation between a trading company and a h personal Bank. POS lending javl I is quite popular in the market among the population. It's good enough d It is a great product for the bank, but at the same time it carries great risks. First, the loan is issued on a mini maln o mu set of documents(until 2017, only a passport was enough, but from January 1, SNILS also became mandatory) . Secondly, the decision to issue a loan is made in a very short time, usually up to an hour, and during such a time it is impossible to adequately assess the client's solvency. Therefore, the rates for this and credit credit are quite high (more than 30%) .

Growth in 2016 POS -lending compared to 2015, as prices rose by 15-20%, and for R wages of citizens grew at a much slower pace. Most market participants are satisfied with the results of their about sales in the "peak" season, which will come l as of December 2016 and early January 2017. So,"Alfa Bank " issued POS loans by 15-20% more than a year ago. Sales"Post Bank" grew by almost 50%, and Russian Standard Bank, which returned to the targeted loans segment, achieved a 160% increase in POS loans compared to the same period last year .

In total, in the first half of 2017, compared to the same period in 2016, the volume of issued consumerof Tel. loans increased from 712.4 to 986.2 m bln roubles. The main reasons for the growth are t deferred demand for loans and strengthening P depreciation of the ruble, which contributed to the about phenomenon in people of economic wholesale and mysma.

In the future, the volume of consumer lending is likely to be slower but grow because the population adapts about fell to the current at equal prices, and their b a basic needs must be addressed. to them about t wears credits for purchases and for image about ing, as well as loans for repairs, etc. about whose consumer goals.

From the "Monitoring of economic and tuations in Russia”, prepared by With According to RANEPA, the Gaidar Institute and VAVT, the growth in the volume of loans in 2017 is higher in regions with higher about the poverty level, since for small about wealthy citizens borrowed funds become real way provide e a decent standard of living. In general, in Russia, the poverty level of the population in the first quarter of 2017 amounted to 15%, which and the same period in 2016 (16%) and 2015 (15.9%), but higher than the level of the first quarter of 2012–2014, when the poverty rate was 13.5— 13,85% .

One of the main risks of lending is the risk of insolvency.

Picture 1 . Debt on loans granted to resident individuals, thousand rubles

As seen from the figure 1, credit card debtkids are growing every year. This is due to the fact that people try to n to cover the lack of funds with loans, because of this they are often unable to return the money to the bank. Zado l the number of Russian women continues to grow, primarily due to cheaper mortgages e ki. Despite the fall in debt at the beginning of 2017, after half a year we in and dim its rapid growth, since with a decrease With increasing rates, the demand for this type of lending is growing.Growth in arrears by credit e ditam can bring to massive ba n meekness.

Increasing demand for credit about ducts is an absolute plus, both for the development of the country's economy, and for the banks themselves. But there are also big problems. e we who are associated with the excessive growth of this segment. For banks always at there is a credit or non-credit risk h the gate of borrowed funds. The larger such defaults, the larger the reserves the bank must create. Due to the decrease in the key rate of the Central Bank, etc. about cents on loans that actively stimulus and cuts borrowers, but at the same time reduces a There are also rates on deposits. Less and less customers are attracted to bank deposits at lower rates, and they are looking for alternative ways to save their money. Without borrowed funds, banks will have nothing to issue new loans and form their own reserves. In such a sieve a tions, the main thing is balance and caution on the part of banks and effective control on the part of the state and the Central Bank.

Bibliographic list

1. Batnasunova A.B. Consumer loans: essence, types, problems and prospects to tives of development in the Russian Federation// Economy and entrepreneurship. - 2017. - No. 4-1 (81-1). - S. 861-865.

2. Chen Yu.A., Drobakha A.A., Bondarenko T.N., Samsonova I.A. C improvement With topics of consumer lending on the example of PJSC "VTB24"// international ju R applied and fundamental research. - 2017. - No. 6-1. - S. 154-158.

3. Krivoshapova S.V., Neprokina M.I. The role and importance of mortgage lending in about social policy of the Russian Federation// Togliatti science vector state n university.Economics and Management.- 2016. - No. 2 (25). - P. 50-55.

4. Krivoshapova S.V., Neprokina M.I. Mortgages as a tool to satisfy and personal needs of the population // Basic Research. - 2015. - No. 10-2. - S. 388-392.

5. Bulavenko O.A., Vasilenko A.V. Comparative aanalysis of consumer loans //Scientific Notes of the Komsomolsk-on-Amur State Technical University. - 2016. - V. 2. No. 3 (27). - S. 87-90.

6. Central Bank website. Indicators of the housing (mortgage housing) lending market [Electronic resource] - Access mode: http://www.cbr.ru/statistics/?PrtId=ipoteka –

7. Central Bank website. Information on credit risk on transactions with individuals [Electronic resource] - Access mode: http://www.cbr.ru/statistics/?PrtId=pdko_sub –

8. Website of the Central Bank. Data on the volume of loans, deposits and other placed funds provided to organizations, individuals and credit institutions [Ele to throne resource] – Access mode: http://www.cbr.ru/statistics/?PrtId=pdko_sub –

9. The Russians were strangled by loans. Newspaper. en [Electronic resource] - Access mode: https://www.gazeta.ru/business/2017/03/07/10562783.shtml –

10. Russia is in debt. Gazeta.ru [Electronic resource] - Access mode: https://www.gazeta.ru/business/2016/02/08/8063009.shtml–

11. Central Bank website. Debt on loans granted to resident individuals [Electronic resource] - Access mode: http://www.cbr.ru/statistics/udstat.aspx?Month=07&Year=2017&TblID=4-5 –

12. Kalmykova I. S., Romanyuk K. V., Schlumpf D. Analysis of the state and dynamics of consumption e bitel lending in Russia and its development trends at the present stage // N a scientific and methodical electronic journal"Concept". - 2017. - T. 4. - S. 168 - 175.

13. Borovsky V.N., Ablitarova E.E. Consumer lending and its development in Russia// Science Time - 2017. - No. 3 (39). - S. 75-81.

14. Islamov F.F., Sakhautdinova E.T. Consumer lending in Ros si: pr o Problems and solutions //Actual problems of humanitarian and natural sciencesphysical sciences. - 2016. - No. 11-1. - FROM. 150-153.

THE ANALYSIS OF THE STATUS AND DYNAMICS OF CONSUMER

CREDITING IN RUSSIA

E.A. Ekimova, student

Vladivostok state university of economics and service

(Russia, Vladivostok)

abstract. Consumer credit is a quite popular banking product among Russian citizens. The purchase of housing, loans, credits for urgent needs and loans for various goods and services - these help people to maintain a decent standard of living and to meet their needs. This type of lending is one of the main sources of interest income for Russian banks, but it also carries ce r tain risks. Chief among them is the risk of non-solvency. Despite this lending contributes to the development of not only the banking sector but the economy as a whole. In 2014-2015, the Russian economy experienced some economic difficulties associated with foreign economic sanctions and the instability of the ruble. In this article the issues associated with determining the place of co n sumer credit in the credit system of the Russian Federation. It focuses on the viewpoint, accor d ing to which consumer credit is an important component for the development of the economy and the banking system, and also serves to improve the well-being of citizens. In the context of cat e gories secured and unsecured loans analysis of the performance and development trends of this type of lending.

keywords: consumer lending, mortgages, credit cards, microfinance, loans, cash loans, loans in retail outlets, POS crediting, pawn shops, credit market, banks, consumers, the level of we fare of citizens.

Eremina Olga Ivanovna, Zolina Evgenia Nikolaevna
1. Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor of the Department of Finance and Credit
2. undergraduate of the Department of Finance and Credit
National Research Mordovian State University named after N. P. Ogarev (Saransk)
Eremina Olga
1. PhD, Associate Professor, Department of Finance and Credit
2. Graduate student, Department of Finance and Credit
Ogarev Mordovia State University (Saransk)

Annotation: The article analyzes the current state of bank lending to the population in the Russian Federation. The problems affecting the bank lending market are highlighted. The analysis of indicators of the dynamics of loans issued to individuals in rubles and foreign currency, overdue loans

Abstract: The article analyzes the current status of Bank lending to the population in the Russian Federation. The problems affecting the lending market. The analysis of the dynamics granted to individuals loans in rubles and foreign currency

Keywords: bank, credit, consumer lending, mortgage lending

keywords: bank, credit, consumer crediting, mortgage crediting

Currently, retail lending is one of the main growth factors for the Russian banking sector and a key segment of most banks' activities. This, in particular, is evidenced by the preservation during 2013-2015. the share of the retail direction in the banking loan portfolio at the level of 23.1-25.7%. Decrease in the indicator in 2015 compared to 2014 by 2.6 p.p. is associated with a slowdown in the growth rate of lending to the population from 128.7% in 2014 to 113.8% in 2015 (by 14.9 p.p. compared to 2014). However, during 2013-2015 in the field of retail lending, a favorable situation can be traced for Russian banks. In general, over the period under study, the volume of loans granted to individuals increased by 46.4%, reaching 11,329,549 million rubles in 2015 (Table 1).

Table 1

Dynamics of the volume of loans provided by Russian banks to individuals in 2013-2015

In 2014, the growth rate of lending to the Russian population slowed down by 10.7 p.p. compared to 2013. – the volume of loans to individuals increased by 28.7% compared to 2013 (up to 9,957,094 million rubles). In 2015, the growth rate of household lending by banks continued to slow down, decreasing by 13.8% compared to 2014. This trend was predictable and was driven by a sharp contraction in the segments of unsecured consumer lending and car loans. The fact is that in 2013 the Bank of Russia introduced additional regulatory requirements for consumer lending, primarily unsecured. The purpose of the measures introduced was to bring the growth rate of retail lending in line with the dynamics of household income and to improve the quality of the retail loan portfolio of banks.

The improvement in the structure of retail operations was reflected in the growth of mortgage lending. In 2014, debt on housing mortgage loans increased by 33.2%, to 3.5 trillion. rubles (2.6 trillion rubles in 2013), and in 2015 - by 12.9%, up to 4.0 trillion. rubles (Figure 1).

Figure 1 - Dynamics of indicators of mortgage bank lending to individuals in Russia for 2013-2015

In 2014, Russian banks provided 1 million 13 thousand units. mortgage loans, which is 22.8% more than in 2013 (825 thousand units). In 2015, this figure dropped to 700,000 mortgage loans. In 2014-2015 The bulk of mortgage loans (96.1% and 96.7%, respectively) were issued in rubles, due to the instability of the dollar exchange rate, as well as an increase in interest rates on foreign currency loans. The latter fact made them unprofitable and stimulated the population to borrow in rubles. A similar trend is typical for consumer loans. As a result, in the total retail loan portfolio, loans in rubles ranged from 96.8% (2013) to 97.6% (2014) (Figure 2).

Figure 2 - Dynamics of the currency structure of the retail loan portfolio of Russian banks for 2013-2015, % .

According to the Bank of Russia, the volume of bank ruble loans provided to the population for 2013-2015 increased by 47.2% (up to 11028783 million rubles in 2015), while the volume of foreign currency loans issued increased by 23.1% to 300766 million rubles in equivalent. In turn, the share of retail loans issued by domestic banks in foreign currency in the total volume of loans issued in foreign currency for 2013-2015. decreased by 1.4 p.p. (up to 2.1% in 2015). Whereas the same indicator for ruble loans, as can be seen from the data in Table 1, increased by 2.6 p.p. over the specified period. (up to 31.6% in 2015).

Slowdown in retail lending growth in 2013-2015 was also caused by a fall in real incomes of the population, which was affected by a slowdown in growth wages and jumps in interest rates on loans. Thus, in 2014, for ruble loans to individuals for a period of more than 1 year, the weighted average interest rate decreased from 18.3% per annum in January to 17.4% per annum in December. At the same time, in 2014, the reduction in rates did not occur in all segments of retail lending. Thus, during 2014 the rates on mortgage housing loans remained quite stable and averaged 12.3% per annum. However, in December 2014, in the process of the general growth of interest rates in the economy, the average rate on these loans increased to 13.2% per annum. In 2015, there was an increase in the cost of loans – in January, the weighted average rate on ruble retail loans for a period of more than 1 year was 19.5% per annum. Such dynamics is due to a wave of sanctions from the US and the EU, as well as a change in the key rate of the Bank of Russia (from October 31, 2014 - 9.5%, from December 11, 2014 - 10.5%, from December 16, 2014 - 17%, from February 2, 2015 - 15%, from March 16, 2015 - 14%, from May 5, 2015 - 12.5%, from June 16, 2015 - 11.5%).

The cut in the key rate since February 2015 has not been followed by the same rapid cut in lending rates. During the spring-summer, loans became more affordable by an average of 5-5.9%. At the end of 2015, the average full rates on non-target consumer loans for the population in cash in rubles approached the level at the beginning of the year. Thus, in December 2015, the weighted average rate on ruble retail loans for a period of more than 1 year decreased to 17.5% per annum. In 2015, the weighted average rate on housing mortgage loans in rubles decreased from 14.2% per annum in January to 12.9% per annum in December 2015. During 2015, interest rates ranged from 12.0% to 24% 9% per annum depending on the type of loan and the availability of guarantors. For example, Sberbank of Russia provides consumer loans for a maximum amount of 3 million rubles at 16.5% for up to 60 months; VTB-24 under identical conditions in terms of term and amount at an interest of 17%.

One of the most important areas of retail bank lending are credit cards. Credit card market leaders are increasing their portfolio by 70-80%. However, despite the growth of this market segment, there is a large reserve, since only 17% of individuals use credit cards. Most credit institutions attract loyal borrowers, focusing on payroll projects. Due to this, the risks in the macroeconomic situation are minimized. The most popular method of issuing borrowed funds is the use of credit cards. In 2014, the credit card market increased from RUB 994.1 billion to RUB 1.17 trillion. rubles, which is 18%. In 2015, the annual growth was at the level of 19%, approximately 1.4 trillion. rubles. Due to ever-increasing rates for credit cards, banks prefer to check their borrowers more carefully or deal with already verified, regular customers and offer them more favorable conditions.

The growth rate of unsecured consumer loans, which form the bulk of the retail loan portfolio of banks and differ increased level risk decreased from 53.0% in 2012 to 31.3% in 2013. At the same time, the quality of loans to the population was gradually declining. In 2013, overdue loans to individuals increased by 40.7%, significantly exceeding the growth rate of these loans (28.7%). As a result specific gravity of overdue debt in this portfolio increased from 4.0 to 4.4%. The quality of unsecured consumer loans deserves special attention: loans with overdue payments over 90 days in this portfolio account for 8.0% (Table 2).

table 2

Dynamics of indicators reflecting the level of risks in lending to individuals in Russian commercial banks

The deterioration in the credit quality of the retail portfolio was most pronounced in banks with an increased concentration of activities in the consumer lending market. This situation was largely the result of a rather risky policy of banks in issuing unsecured consumer loans.

Thus, the analysis of the dynamics of bank lending to the population in Russia for 2013-2015. showed that the positive trend in this segment (146.4% over the specified period) was accompanied by a slowdown in the growth rate of lending (128.7% in 2014, 113.8% in 2015). This is due to the narrowing of the segments of unsecured consumer lending and car loans, the fall in real incomes of the population, as well as the abrupt movement of interest rates on loans. At the same time, the growth of mortgage lending and credit cards helped improve the structure of the retail loan portfolio. The main part of household loans (96.8-97.6%), including mortgage loans, is provided in rubles, which is due to the instability of the dollar exchange rate, as well as an increase in interest rates on foreign currency loans. The growth rate of unsecured consumer loans, which form the bulk of the retail loan portfolio of banks and are characterized by a high level of risk in 2013-2014. slowed down by 3.5 times, and in 2015 the volume of unsecured consumer loans decreased by 12.4%.Obviously, these facts have a positive impact on the state of bank lending to the population in the current and medium term.

Bibliographic list