New era of China. Renewal policy: what development strategy did China choose after the 19th Congress of the Communist Party The 19th Congress of the Communist Party of China against

October 25, 2017, the day after completion XIX Congress and the Communist Party of China, which elected a new composition of the Central Committee of the Party, held the first plenum of the Central Committee of the CPC. He re-elected Xi Jinping as Secretary General of the world's largest political force. This decision, as well as the election of seven members of the standing committee of the Politburo and 25 members of the Politburo, marked the creation of a new power configuration around the Chinese leader.

Xi Jinping and New Members of the Politburo Standing Committee of the CPC Central Committee
Reuters
Jason Lee

In the seven members of the standing committee of the Politburo of the CPC Central Committee, five people were replaced, except for Xi Jinping himself and the head of the Chinese government, Li Keqiang. The newly appointed members are about 65 years old, and all of them have previously distinguished themselves in various party posts in the province and Beijing.

Third in the party hierarchy, Li Zhanshu, head of the office of the CPC Central Committee, worked in the party apparatus of the Hebei region with Xi Jinping in the 1980s and is considered his close associate. Vice Premier of the State Council Wang Yang, coming fourth, on the contrary, is considered close to the previous leader of China, Hu Jintao, a representative of the Komsomol group (party leaders who left the bureaucracy of the Communist Youth League of China). Xi Jinping is referred to as the "princes" - the descendants of the leaders of the CCP from the time of Mao Zedong.

The fifth person in the party is now the head of the Central Committee Political Research Center Wang Huning, in charge of the ideology of the CCP. This native of Shanghai rose to prominence under Jiang Zemin, who represented the "Shanghai group". Sixth is Zhao Leji, head of the Chinese Communist Party's Central Committee for Discipline Inspection of the Central Committee, who will lead the fight against corruption, replacing retired party veteran Wang Qishan. Zhao Leji joined the Politburo five years ago when Xi Jinping came to power. Finally, Han Zheng, head of the Shanghai party organization, became the seventh member of the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the CPC Central Committee.

Among the new members of the Politburo is the head of the Chancellery working group The Central Committee for Finance and Economics and one of Xi Jinping's top economic advisers, Liu He, as well as Chen Min'er, the head of the party organization in Chongqing, who is also considered very close to Xi Jinping.

“The composition of the standing committee of the Politburo, which experts spoke about before the congress, was almost completely justified,” said Alexei Maslov, a professor at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, in an interview with RT. “The majority of Xi Jinping’s supporters have entered there.”

With the completion of the congress and re-election to the highest party post of the chairman of the PRC, world leaders congratulated.

“The results of the vote fully confirmed the political authority of Xi Jinping, broad support for his course towards accelerated socio-economic development of China, strengthening its international positions,” he stressed. Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Congratulated the Chinese leader and US President Donald Trump. Speaking on Fox Business, he stated that “now you can call (C. - RT) the emperor of China, but he is called the chairman."

Living classic

According to experts, Xi Jinping managed to achieve the main thing at this congress - he significantly strengthened his power by placing people loyal to himself in key positions. At the same time, for the first time in a long time, the figure of a successor was not designated at the congress. Political analysts believe this means that Xi Jinping plans to remain party leader beyond 2022, when the next congress of the Communist Party of China is held.

Xi Jinping at the Congress of the Chinese Communist Party
Reuters
Aly Song

The strengthening of Xi Jinping's position was also reflected in the fact that he was the third after the Chinese party leaders Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping to be mentioned in new edition party charter approved by the congress. Moreover, Xi Jinping's concept of a "new era of socialism with Chinese characteristics" received the status of "ideas". Previously, the term had only been applied to "the ideas of Mao Zedong". The ideology of Deng Xiaoping, for example, was called only a "theory", emphasizing the superiority of Mao. The current Chinese leader has actually stood on a par with the founding father of the PRC.

"Xi Jinping's ideas of socialism with Chinese characteristics of the new era are the continuation and development of Marxism-Leninism, the ideas of Mao Zedong, the theory of Deng Xiaoping, the important ideas of the triple representation and the scientific concept of development, the latest achievement of the Sinicization of Marxism<…>as well as a guide to action in the implementation of the party and the people of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation, ”Xinhua News Agency quoted the resolution of the 19th Congress of the CPC on the draft revised party charter.

“Now Xi Jinping is joining the ranks of major theorists of Marxism,” says Maslov. - In fact, he is on a par with Marx, Lenin, Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping. That is, Xi Jinping positions himself as the peak of the development of world Marxist thought.”

In addition, this step, from the point of view of a political scientist, demonstrates that the Chinese President plans to stay in power for a long time.

“Fixing the name of Xi Jinping in the charter also fixes his role in history, and in this case it doesn’t matter what his position will be called in five years,” the expert emphasized. “Obviously, he will remain an active leader of the country. The policy that he outlines will continue at least until 2027.”

Socialism with a Chinese face

The meaning of the policy of "building socialism with Chinese characteristics in a new era" is, first of all, to improve the well-being of ordinary Chinese. If earlier the Chinese economy developed mainly due to the production of products for export, now the country's authorities plan to increase domestic demand first of all.

The streets of Beijing
Reuters
Tyrone Siu

The 19th Congress of the CPC set ambitious goals for the party and the state: by 2021, the centenary of the CPC, to complete the construction of a middle-class society and eradicate poverty.

Already now, as the president of the ANO Russian-Chinese Analytical Center Sergey Sanakoev noted in an interview with RT, up to 300 million people can be attributed to the middle class in China.

“These are people who are able to buy houses, cars, travel abroad,” the expert explained. “A middle-income society means that most of the 1.5 billion China will approach this level of consumption.”

Beijing plans to achieve this goal not through the extensive development of already existing sectors of the economy, but by actively promoting new technologies. Therefore, the next task, announced by the congress, is to build a modernized innovative economy with a serious environmental component by 2035. To do this, run environmental program"Beautiful China". Experts note that already now 55% of China's economic growth is provided by high-tech industries.

The next landmark is 2049, the centenary of the founding of the PRC. By this time, China intends to complete the construction of a "modernized socialist state."

“Taking into account a certain linguistic specificity of the imagery of thinking that our eastern neighbors show, I would state that by the middle of the 21st century they plan to build communism,” Sanakoev specified.

global project

Increased attention to China's internal development does not mean a course of self-isolation and abandonment of global ambitions. On the contrary, among the decisions of the 19th Congress of the CPC is the inclusion of Xi Jinping's "One Belt, One Road" initiative in the party charter. This is a strategy for the economic integration of the Eurasian space, focused on China.

The leading ideologists of China's foreign policy of the past five years have found their place in the new Politburo: former Foreign Minister Yang Jiechi, who accompanied Xi Jinping on his visits to Russia and the United States, Li Zhanshu, and Wang Huning, whom Western experts call the father of a more aggressive foreign policy towards West.

China not only declares its course towards building a great power, but also emphasizes that it is ready to try on the role of a global leader, experts say.

“At the congress, China’s major merits were noted for its participation in the creation of a number of organizations: the One Belt, One Road project, BRICS, the SCO, the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank,” notes Alexei Maslov, a sinologist. “This means that China is not only starting to play an active role in world politics, but also forming a new political space.”

The ideological justification for this policy is the concept of a “community of a common destiny” formulated back in 2015, which the Chinese leader voiced at the anniversary session of the UN General Assembly.

“Countries must live a common destiny, uphold common values that are evident from the results of the Second World War, and build a single multipolar safe world,” Sergey Sanakoev explains the meaning of this concept.

Xi Jinping spoke about the "community of common destiny" both at the congress and at the end of the first plenum of the renewed CPC Central Committee.

“The Chinese people, who have self-confidence and self-respect, will be resolute in protecting the sovereignty, security and development interests of their country.<…>At the same time, China will actively work with other countries to build a community with a common destiny for mankind, constantly making new and more significant contributions to the noble cause of peace and human development,” Xinhua quoted Xi Jinping as saying.

Together with Russia

Experts note that this concept is close to Russia's orientation towards building a multipolar world.

“We offer a much safer world than the model of Western globalism, which is obviously in a global crisis,” Sanakoev says.

As the political scientist notes, it is under Xi Jinping that Beijing and Moscow are increasingly supporting each other, interacting both in world politics and in the economy.

“We are building serious integration processes, we even have integration of integrations,” he stressed, referring to the potential for linking the One Belt, One Road project and the Eurasian Economic Union.

Construction of the Power of Siberia gas pipeline
RIA News
Alexey Nikolsky

According to Sanakoev, the two countries are expected to strengthen cooperation, deeper interaction, especially in the Far Eastern regions of Russia, increase trade turnover and attract investment.

“Not only energy cooperation is actively developing, such areas as space, aviation, nuclear energy are much more serious, everything that concerns industries with high added value,” the expert says.

In turn, Maslov is confident that the strengthening of the positions of Xi Jinping's supporters in the leadership of the PRC will make relations between Moscow and Beijing more pragmatic and focused on a specific result.

“China is now talking a lot about the effectiveness of the actions it is taking. This means that one should not expect any empty investments or investments for declarative projects,” the expert believes.

At the same time, Maslov predicts, the military-political component of cooperation will also develop. According to him, Beijing intends to make its army and navy one of the strongest in the world and is interested both in Russian technologies and in military and diplomatic support for our country. Another area of cooperation is the expansion of Moscow's participation in the One Belt, One Road project.

“China will, one way or another, involve Russia in more active cooperation with regard to the One Belt, One Road project. The activation or non-activation of investments in Russia depends on participation in this project,” the expert concluded.

In the context of an unprecedented information vacuum, the 19th Congress of the Communist Party of China opens today in Beijing, which will determine the composition of the country's leadership for the next five years. The last year was marked by an undercover struggle within the Chinese elite, whose factions sought to get as many "their" people as possible into leading positions in party and government bodies. General Secretary Xi Jinping has consolidated power to align with China's founding fathers and bring about much-needed reforms. The results of the congress will show whether he has accumulated enough political capital to finally defeat his opponents and break the unspoken rules by which the country has lived for the past 25 years.

The political process of the era of change

Usually the list of those who will enter the Politburo governing the country is known three or four months before the congress. This has been the case since the early 1990s, when investment poured into China and predictability began to be valued over secrecy. Foreign politicians and businessmen were convinced that regardless of who heads the state, factories will work, foreigners will be able to withdraw profits, and political and social upheavals are not expected. Certainty served as a signal that there are no two views on the development of society: there is a consensus in the Communist Party. Confucian harmony in the elite was ensured by the process of general accumulation of capital, against which political squabbles looked out of place.

This time the tradition was broken. Chinese, Russian and American experts, in a conversation with Kommersant, only shrugged their shoulders: who, following the results of the 19th Congress, will take the helm of the state, one can only guess.

The rising level of secrecy may be a testament to the strengthening of internal party discipline that Xi Jinping has been working on for the past five years. However, it can also indicate that, compared with the times of Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao, the number of people actually involved in decision-making has greatly decreased, and with them, the number of “leaks” to the press. The current head of China has already seriously changed the face of the country's political system, and it is possible that in a week (when the congress ends), it will change even more.

The Congress of the Communist Party of China, which meets once every five years, is the supreme governing body of the 89 millionth party and, in fact, the entire country. Approximately 2.3 thousand party delegates approve the composition of the Central Committee (CC), which includes 200 members and 176 candidate members who do not have the right to vote, but who have a chance to become full members later. The Central Committee, in turn, approves the Politburo (25 people) and the Standing Committee of the Politburo (PCPB, seven people), which make the main political decisions. In fact, both the composition of the Central Committee and the composition of the future Politburo are determined by the previous composition of the Politburo in the course of intense bargaining between competing interest groups.

Since at least the beginning of the 1990s, the unspoken rule "sixty-seven - pass, sixty-eight - delete" has been in effect. Members of the Politburo over 67 at the congress must resign in order to clear the way for a new generation and prevent the system from falling into insanity. Age limits have been set for other authorities as well. In accordance with them, according to the results of the 19th Congress, the composition of the Central Committee should be renewed by more than half, the Politburo will leave 11 people, and the PCPB - five, all except Xi Jinping and Prime Minister Li Keqiang.

In the tradition of Chinese reform architect Deng Xiaoping, the general secretary and the premier take office at a congress whose year ends in a deuce (1992, 2002, 2012, 2022), while congresses ending in a seven (1997, 2007, 2017 , 2027) serve the purpose of summarizing the interim results of the board. During them, as a rule, the future Secretary General and Prime Minister are introduced into the PCPB, who differ from the rest of its members in their youth (they are usually about 50 years old, while the rest of the PCPB members are 60–65 years old). In 2022, they were supposed to be the protégés of former Secretary General Hu Jintao Sun Zhengcai and Hu Chunhua, the youngest members of the current Politburo.

Foundation Shaker

The fact that this whole harmonious system is likely to collapse has been talked about almost from the very beginning of Xi Jinping's rule. The General Secretary immediately showed himself as a much stronger and more authoritarian leader than his two predecessors. The anti-corruption campaign he launched turned into an unprecedented purge: Xu Caihou and Guo Boxiong, the deputy heads of the Central Military Council (CMC) that controls the army, and the head of the party committee of Chongqing (the largest city of central subordination in China) were sent to prison on charges of corruption. ) Bo Xilai, who were previously considered untouchable. But the real shock was the removal in July from his post and subsequent arrest of the new head of the party committee of Chongqing, Sun Zhengcai, who was considered one of the two future leaders of the country agreed upon by the elite.

Then there were rumors that Xi Jinping might defy the age limit and retain his closest associate, the head of the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI, the main anti-corruption body) Wang Qishan, who turned 69 in 2017. For the past five years, he has fought tirelessly with the political enemies of the Secretary General, and it would not be easy to find a replacement for him. Over the past year, high-ranking party officials in the official Chinese media have been setting the stage for Wang Qishan to remain in office, casually dropping phrases such as “age restrictions are a custom, not a rule” and “given the development of modern medicine, human skills are important, not his age."

Against the backdrop of clear disagreements among the top officials in the ruling tandem, many experts began to say that a "vote of no confidence" in Prime Minister Li Keqiang could well be passed at the congress. He belongs to the “Komsomol” group opposing Xi Jinping, the head of which is considered former Secretary General Hu Jintao. Differences in views between the two leaders due to the closed nature of the system are not always obvious, but in general, the Secretary General is a supporter of much more radical changes in the economy. Liu Keqiang's actions in 2015 and 2016 were criticized in the official media by Xi Jinping's economic adviser Liu He, who signed his articles as an "authoritative person." He pointed to the indecisive and erroneous nature of the prime minister's actions in the situation with the reform of state enterprises and the financial crisis of 2015.

Finally, the main long-term intrigue of the congress will be the issue of maintaining the powers of Xi Jinping himself beyond the established ten-year period. “He will not leave in 2022,” Akio Takahara, a professor at the University of Tokyo, assured Kommersant. “Given the scale of the reforms he initiated and the desire to remain in history, he will look for ways to stay in power and finish what he started.” Technically, the absence of two young successor politicians in the new composition of the PCPB will indicate the intention to break the ten-year limit. However, there are options here. “For example, Xi Jinping can retain real power in 2022, remaining the head of the party and the Central Military Commission, and give his post as chairman of the PRC to someone else,” Ivan Zuenko, a researcher at the Center for Asia-Pacific Studies of the Institute of Energy and the Far East of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Kommersant. Until 1992, these positions were divided and the post of the PRC chairman was not so important.

New Zhejiang Army

At the congress, the general secretary, like any leader before him, will try to get as many of his people as possible into the governing bodies. “He needs not just personnel in high positions, but those who really influence political decision-making. At the same time, formally, they can even occupy not so prominent posts, - Alexander Gabuev, head of the Asian program of the Carnegie Moscow Center, tells Kommersant. - In particular, he will most likely try to staff the leadership of the departments of the CPC Central Committee and appoint the heads of all the most important small groups where the real development of the course takes place.

Xi Jinping’s protégé is called the “new Zhejiang army” in China, as most of his nominees clashed with him in one way or another during his time in Zhejiang province. Among them, the most interesting figure is the current head of the Chongqing party committee, Chen Miner. He served as head of Zhejiang's propaganda department during Xi Jinping's presidency. In terms of age, Chen Miner is well suited to the role of one of the two leaders of the next generation of leaders. This is his second appointment to the role of head of the region's party committee: before Chongqing, he led Guizhou province and thus fulfilled one of the unspoken conditions for joining the PCPB: to work as the head of at least one rich and one poor region.

Among other supporters of Xi Jinping who may enter the PCPB and the Politburo, they name the head of the organizational department of the CPC Central Committee Zhao Leji, the heads of the Shanghai and Beijing party committees Han Zheng and Cai Qi, the head of the office of the CPC Central Committee Li Zhanshu, his economic adviser Liu He and a number of other people. The general secretary has enough people to fill all the vacant posts in the highest party body of power, but he may not have enough political capital. Because of this, as noted by many experts interviewed by Kommersant, he can agree to reduce the standing committee of the Politburo from seven to five people, which the internal party rules fully allow. This will allow Xi Jinping to enforce his decisions more easily, but could spark resentment within the party, which has become accustomed to more democratic decision-making over the past 30 years.

The most consensus configuration of the elite today seems to be the introduction into the PCPB of both the protégé of Secretary General Chen Miner and the Party Secretary of Guangdong Province Hu Chunhua, who belongs to the "Komsomol" faction opposing Xi Jinping. This would allow maintaining intra-elite harmony and ensuring the continuity of power in 2022.

An idea thrown to the masses

At the congress, the Secretary General will present a report that will sum up the results of the past five years and set guidelines for the next five. It usually consists of approximately 29 thousand characters and 13 sections. Briefly, the most important points of the report were outlined in a communiqué issued on October 14 at the end of the Seventh Plenum of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of the XVIII convocation. According to him, changes will be made to the charter of the Communist Party, in fact standing above the constitution of the PRC. These changes "will reflect the latest achievements of the sinicization of Marxism, new management concepts, new experience in strengthening party leadership."

In other words, the contribution of Xi Jinping himself will be added to the party charter, which, unlike its predecessors, has already generated several concepts that claim a place in history. The intrigue here is whether the Secretary General's ideas will be listed impersonally in the charter, such as Hu Jintao's "concept of scientific development", or with a name mentioned, like "Mao Zedong's ideas" and "Deng Xiaoping's theory" already included in the text. If the second option is chosen, it will mean that the current leader of China will stand on a par with the founding fathers of the country and far above his two predecessors.

The Chinese press ahead of time began to prepare the ground for the inclusion of "the ideas of Xi Jinping" in the charter. In July, an article about them was published by the influential communist publication Party Building Studies, which said the concept of the general secretary helps "to further localize Marxism in China and develop a theory of socialism with Chinese characteristics." As Igor Denisov, a senior researcher at the Center for East Asian and SCO Studies at IMI MGIMO, noted in an interview with Kommersant, “most likely, the ideas of the Secretary General will be included in the text of the charter as a new concept of public administration.”

However, if the charter is supplemented with “the ideas of Xi Jinping”, then this will rather indicate the authoritarian nature of the new government, and not that the current general secretary has become on a par with Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping in terms of personality. Although the entire week before the Congress, Xinhua News Agency recalled the successes achieved over the past five years (an average annual economic growth of 7.2%, an increase in household disposable income from 7.3 thousand yuan to 23.8 thousand yuan, a two-fold reduction in poverty), the majority of them were the result of the work of the economic machine built by Xi Jinping's predecessors. For the past five years, he has basically consolidated power in order to break the inert bureaucratic environment. The epoch opened by the 19th Congress will show whether he uses his powers to transform society or whether the strengthening of power was still an end in itself.

Mikhail Korostikov

The 19th Congress of the Communist Party of China (CCP), which is ending on October 24 in Beijing, has become one of the most closed forums in the recent party history of the Celestial Empire - including due to the acuteness of personnel issues resolved at it in the context of the large-scale fight against corruption carried out by the Party Secretary General and Chairman of the People's Republic of China Xi Jinping . In the report of Xi Jinping himself, the anti-corruption component of the party policy was formulated as follows: “We will expose tigers, brush off flies and hunt foxes,” which implies the fight against abuses at all levels of party and state structures. As a result of this struggle, as well as the general process of rejuvenation of the leading bodies of the Communist Party of China (the "landmark" age in terms of retaining membership in the CPC Central Committee is 70), the composition of the CPC Central Committee was renewed at the current congress by more than half. Serious changes have also been made in the composition of the Politburo of the Central Committee and its Standing Committee.

Xi Jinping also made significant adjustments to the content of the so-called 14 principles of "socialism with Chinese characteristics", dating back to the time of Deng Xiaoping. The key among them, the President of the People's Republic of China in his report proposed to do, in addition to fighting corruption and solving environmental problems, also strengthening the country's international influence. According to the schedule he released, by 2035, China should "rise to the level of leading countries of the innovative type", and by 2050 - to become "a rich and powerful, democratic and civilized" power. By the same year, the People's Liberation Army of China should become a "world-class force," Xi Jinping stressed in his unusually long (3 hours and 23 minutes) report at the congress.

It is the international aspect in China's long-term policy that is of particular interest in the context of the current party forum, given China's undoubtedly growing geopolitical activity in the region and in the world as a whole. In Xi Jinping's report, it was rightly noted that China's "soft power" and international influence have increased significantly, and "the country's international position has reached an unprecedented level." "The time has come for us to come to the forefront of the world and start making a greater contribution to the history of mankind," the Chinese President stressed.

It should be taken into account that traditionally CPC congresses do not accept program documents and statements relating to foreign policy issues, and fundamental conclusions about the nature of the changes can be drawn on the basis of changes in the personnel composition, as well as the hierarchy of theses from the final report of the general secretary himself.

From this point of view, it is precisely the wide personnel rotation carried out at the 19th CPC Congress that seems to be key, which objectively strengthens the weight of Xi Jinping himself, as well as the younger generation of “technocrats”. This circumstance has already given certain grounds for forecasts in the spirit of China "moving from the model of collective management to the concentration of power in one hand." (vedomosti.ru)

This situation, in turn, allows us to expect a further increase in China's activity in the international arena, both in the military-political and financial-economic spheres, which are of particular interest to Xi Jinping personally.

The economic component of Chinese expansion - which is of particular concern to US President Donald Trump - has traditionally been directly related to Beijing's effective use of socio-demographic factors, primarily cheap labor. This allows the country to maintain a steady pace of economic growth in recent years. The gross domestic product of the country grew in the third quarter of this year by 6.8% in annual terms. This is slightly lower than the previous quarter, but still exceeds the targets set by the government for the current year. In the first three quarters of 2017, China's GDP grew at an annualized rate of 6.9%, while the government's forecast for the year was 6.5%. In addition, for the first time since 2010, the Chinese economy may show an excess of annual growth rates compared to the previous year (in 2016, growth was 6.7%).

In his speech at the opening of the congress on October 18, Xi Jinping emphasized that in his first five years in power (he received the posts of CCP Secretary General and Chairman of the PRC at the previous party congress in 2012), China's GDP grew by $26 trillion. yuan, which is 3.9 trillion dollars. In addition, according to the Chinese leader, "it was possible to satisfy the basic needs of more than 1 billion citizens of the country."

However, it is in the socio-economic sphere that changes may take place in the near future with regard to the functioning of the national model itself. Xi Jinping, in his report at the congress, called for the realization of the "Chinese dream of rejuvenating the nation", as well as for an accelerated transition to the principles of "innovation economy". Both can both give a new impetus to the development of China and its activity in the world, and lead to a possible increase in internal instability and intensification of internal political contradictions, including in the country's leadership.

In this context, one should take into account the baggage of negative factors and indicators accumulated in China. In particular, the chairman of the People's Bank of China, Zhou Xiaochuan, sees a serious danger in too high rates of accumulation of debts of companies and households. According to him, the country's government should not allow itself "excessive optimism", since an excessive increase in the debt burden in the economy can lead to a rapid collapse of the markets. Debts of only local governments under the active mortgage lending and rising infrastructure costs reach about $6.3 trillion. dollars, which is about 51% of GDP.

International experts also agree that the growing investment of borrowed funds increases long-term economic risks. “The latest data paints a reassuring picture of an economy that, on the surface, is rushing forward at full speed. However, potential financial market problems continue to accumulate inside, although they are still invisible,” said Eswar Prasad, professor of economics at Cornell University and former head of the IMF’s China department, for example. (vedomosti.ru)

It is symptomatic that, having given a detailed assessment of China's economic achievements in recent years, the PRC chairman in his report did not announce new specific digital benchmarks, including the traditional goals for such forums in terms of the size of the national economy and the level of GDP per capita, which can be interpreted as an assumption the possibility of their reduction. "Both omissions seem to be designed to give the authorities more room to maneuver in order to solve numerous structural problems," said Christopher Johnson, an expert at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). (vedomosti.ru)

Xi Jinping's stated need to change China's economic course is directly related to Beijing's intention to pursue a more active foreign policy. And here the following key areas should be especially noted.

The first direction is military. Strengthening the army, and, above all, the national naval forces, is of particular importance in the light of the main points of Beijing's policy in the region (mutual relations with Taiwan and territorial disputes in the East China and South China Seas). The naval dimension of Chinese foreign policy also includes the opening this year of the first full-fledged military base in Djibouti. The territorial contradictions between China and India in the Tibet region are also directly linked to the problems of strengthening the Chinese People's Liberation Army.

The second direction is Eurasian. Since the previous 18th Congress of the CPC, Beijing has made unprecedented efforts to promote its own projects, including the Silk Road Economic Belt and the Maritime Silk Road, aimed at developing the trade, transport and economic corridors of Eurasia. In addition, the withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) announced by the new US administration opened up a unique opportunity for China to try to take a leading position in integration trade and economic (and, on this basis, political) projects in the Asia-Pacific region. “Trump took office promising to end the trade imbalance with China. And this is a worthy goal. And what was his first step? Break the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a trade deal that could place the US at the head of a 12-nation trade bloc built around US interests and values. This could potentially eliminate some 18,000 tariffs on US goods and control 40% of global GDP. And China was not in this bloc. This is called leverage,” the American newspaper The New York Times sneers in this regard. “Trump tore up the Trans-Pacific Partnership to 'please the electorate' and now he's only begging China for some trade crumbs. And since he needs the help of China in the case North Korea, it can influence trade issues even less, ”the publication concludes. (nytimes.com)

The third key area of Chinese policy is the North Korean nuclear issue.. Here, China's role is as important as it is controversial, determined by its status as a permanent member of the UN Security Council and at the same time Pyongyang's leading trade and economic partner. The United States, South Korea and Japan have consistently demanded that Beijing significantly tighten pressure on the North Korean leadership, up to and including the imposition of a full-scale economic blockade. However, such demands contradict both the principle of "soft power" in foreign policy, once again confirmed by Xi Jinping, and the strengthening of China's trade and economic positions in the region and beyond. It is obvious that the foreign policy principles and priorities proclaimed at the 19th CPC Congress will be tested for the first time very soon - during the scheduled visit to Beijing by US President Donald Trump during his Asian tour in early November. (vedomosti.ru)

The ambitious plans of the Chinese party and state leadership, announced at the current congress of the CPC, objectively meet the interests of Russia, as they create the basis for building up bilateral cooperation. This applies, first of all, to the energy sector, which is designed to provide energy for China's growing production capacity. The contract between Rosneft and the Chinese private company CEFC China Energy, concluded in early September of this year during the visit of a Russian delegation led by President Vladimir Putin to Beijing, will ensure a sharp increase in Russian oil supplies to China by the end of 2017. “We will deliver 40 million tons to China this year,” Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin said on October 19. - And next year we will add another 10 million tons. And so we will supply the next five years. (vedomosti.ru)

As a result, the Chinese market this year will account for 20% of Rosneft's oil production and 32% of its exports. At the same time, according to Igor Sechin, Rosneft and CEFC are preparing an additional "cooperation contract" designed for a longer period. The key partner of the Russian oil company is also the Chinese National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC). At the end of 2016, Russia ranks first in the structure of oil suppliers to China with an indicator of 52.5 million tons, ahead of Saudi Arabia (51 million tons) and Angola and Iraq, traditionally oriented to the Chinese market.

Another promising energy project in the structure of cooperation between Russia and China is the construction of the Power of Siberia gas pipeline, which provides for the transportation of gas from the Irkutsk and Yakutsk gas production centers to Russian consumers at Far East and to China (the "eastern" route). The relevant agreement (the Contract for the Sale of Russian Gas via the Eastern Route) was signed in May 2014 by PJSC Gazprom and CNPC. It was concluded for a period of 30 years and involves the supply of 38 billion cubic meters of gas per year to China, starting from December 2019. (gazprom.ru)

In addition to purely economic factors, the implementation of the above projects, as well as the build-up of Russian-Chinese cooperation in other areas - including in the format of "silk roads" - directly depends on the stability of the internal political situation in China itself. And XIXThe CPC congress strengthened this stability, at least for the coming years.

Participants of the 19th Congress of the Communist Party of China (CCP), which will open in the Great Hall of the People on Tiananmen Square on October 18, have already gathered in the Chinese capital. The party, which has 89 million 447 thousand members (the largest political organization of its kind in the world), is represented by 2,287 delegates from party organizations of all provinces, autonomous regions, cities of central subordination, party and state organs, state enterprises, the army and the people's armed police.

During the week, they will discuss the pressing issues of the CCP's activities, and elect a new composition of the Central Committee and the Central Commission of the CCP for discipline inspection. Then, at the first plenary session of the 19th Central Committee, a new Politburo of the CPC Central Committee will be elected. At the top of this governing pyramid is the Standing Committee of the Politburo (PC PB), which currently has seven members, of which, due to unspoken age restrictions (the age of retirement is 68), five are to be replaced. However, the number of members of the SC PB may also change.

It seems undoubted that the current General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee Xi Jinping (64 years old), who is also the Chairman of the PRC, will remain at the head of the party, and therefore the country as a whole and its armed forces. Observers have no doubt that 62-year-old Premier Li Keqiang will remain the second member of the current "fifth leadership generation".

The CCP is the ruling party, and its interests cover the socio-economic sphere, relations with the outside world, as well as the ideology of a country with a population of over 1.3 billion people. The complexity of the forum's problems corresponds to the position of the second, and in a number of indicators - the first economy in the world. As the highest organ of the party, the congress must determine its line and policy, in other words, how to live in the Celestial Empire for at least the next five years.

Economic sphere

China, thanks to the policy of reform and opening up over the past almost four decades, has established itself as the world's leading producer, and the standard of living of the population is constantly rising. It can be said that for the first time in its history, the Middle State managed to feed, clothe and equip its population, the fight against extreme poverty is being successfully carried out, in which, according to official data, about 40 million people still live. The Chinese are confidently mastering high-tech industries, in space exploration China competes with the United States and Russia, and China's investments abroad are already surpassing foreign investments in its own country. In the current difficult international environment, China maintains a positive development momentum.

However, a number of analysts draw attention to the general trend towards a slowdown in the growth of the Chinese economy. The local expert community recognizes that the era of the rapid development of the Chinese economy is ending, and the leadership itself declares that with the holding of the 19th Congress, the country "will fully enter a new stage in the development of socialism with Chinese characteristics."

Jiang Yu, an employee of the Development Center of the State Council of the People's Republic of China, calls it the third stage: the first stage, according to him, began after the founding of the PRC in 1949, it is characterized by the achievement of China's political and economic independence. In the second stage, with the proclamation of reforms and openness, unprecedented economic growth and development were observed market economy while maintaining a common socialist principle. The third stage, which began five years ago, the expert believes, will be completed by the middle of the 21st century, it implies a further deepening of reforms, an even greater openness of the socialist system while strengthening the leading role of the party, increasing social justice, and the overall success of the market economy. “Detailed answers to the questions of how to realize the task of building a modern socialist country,” the analyst sums up, “will be provided by the 19th Congress.”

"China's economic transformation will be successful," said Liu He, head of the office of the Finance and Economics Working Group of the CPC Central Committee. He is considered a key figure in Xi Jinping's group of economic advisers. Experts point to discussion around roadmap on the transition to a supply-side economy, which implies a reduction in taxes and government regulation in general. But no one undertakes to predict what measures Chinese will go government to implement it.

A change in the paradigm of economic development will force the abandonment of the target indicator of GDP growth rates, and the success of the new economic policy can be measured only by the most important criterion - the improvement in the life of the Laobaixing, the "venerable hundred families", that is, the Chinese people themselves. The population is invited to live in a “new normal”, according to which growth rates are not the most important thing, more important is improving the quality of life.

However, it is precisely the growth of domestic consumption that can help maintain China's GDP growth and even slightly accelerate the economy. According to the chairman of the People's Bank of China (Central Bank) Zhou Xiaochuan, in the second half of 2017, the growth rate due to this factor may increase slightly and reach 7% in annual terms.

Among the most significant measures within the framework of the program for restructuring the economy is a reduction in production in the steel and coal industries and some other traditional industries. Priority will be given to high-tech areas, the service industry, and the digital economy. Raise economic efficiency It is supposed to be due to the wider participation of private capital and the initiative in general, the development of public-private partnerships.

However, it must be borne in mind that steel and coal are the pillars of the socialist economy, where millions of workers are employed. In addition to these workers, the fate of numerous managers and officials both locally and in the center is unclear. According to some observers, Xi Jinping will carry out the measures of his economic headquarters with sufficient caution. The congress must demonstrate unity and stability with a general readiness for change, and it is unlikely that any radical shifts will occur in the reform and stability formula.

Strict party management

The first five years of leadership of Xi Jinping and his team will be remembered, above all, for the campaign against corruption. The disciplinary bodies of the CCP have dealt with more than a million cases, and more than 1.4 million state and party officials have been subjected to various punishments. In addition to the "flies" - petty violators of state and party discipline - 240 "tigers", high-level corrupt officials, were punished. Among the first, even before the start of Xi Jinping's presidency, was arrested Bo Xilai, former Minister of Commerce, Governor of Liaoning Province, Secretary of the Party Committee of one of the largest Chinese cities - Chongqing. Zhou Yongkang, former member of the Politburo Standing Committee of the CPC Central Committee, who previously held the posts of Minister of Public Security and Secretary of the Political and Legal Commission of the CPC Central Committee, was sentenced to life imprisonment. He was considered the patron of the "oil lobby" in the Chinese establishment.

Literally before the opening of the congress, the CPC Central Committee announced a "shameful list" of a dozen leaders of various levels who were expelled from the ranks of the party for corruption. At the head of the list is Sun Zhengcai, who headed the party committee of the metropolis of Chongqing. He is accused of "abusing official powers, using them for other purposes to influence certain persons for personal gain." The list also includes the former head of the city of Tianjin (Northern China) Huang Xingguo, the former chairman of the Committee for the Affairs of Hong Kong (Hong Kong), Macau (Maomen), Taiwan and compatriots living abroad Sun Huaishan, the former Minister of Justice Wu Aiying, the former governor of the eastern province Fujian Su Shulin, Former Party Secretary of Northwest Gansu Province Wang Sanyun, Former Chairman of China's Insurance Supervision and Administration Committee Xiang Junbo, Former Deputy Governor of Jiangsu Province (East China) Li Yunfeng, Former General of the People's Liberation Army of China (PLA) ) Wang Jianping, former political commissar of the Air Force Tian Xiuxi, former vice governor of the northern Chinese province of Hebei Yang Chongyong, and former head of the Anti-Corruption Committee of the Ministry of Finance Mo Jiancheng.

All of them had previously been accused of violating party discipline, abuse of official powers, and non-compliance with the norms of generally accepted morality. Some of those expelled from the party are accused of violating labor laws, "breeding bureaucracy and idle lack of initiative, bribery and pimping", "misappropriation of material goods in extremely large volumes." The decision to expel them from the CCP was made in advance, but before the 19th Congress it was announced as the final verdict.

The campaign also affected the army - from the generals, following the former vice chairman of the Central Military Commission (CMC) Xu Caihou, who died in 2015 under investigation, the second former deputy chairman of the CMC, Colonel General Guo Boxiong, was sentenced to life imprisonment.

Xi Jinping initiated the adoption of the "Eight-Point Rules" and "Six Prohibitions", which significantly tightened the norms of the CPC Charter and, in fact, became a new regulator of party life. These requirements prevented banquets and offerings at public expense, excluded the payment of holidays, magnificent ceremonies of meetings and farewells, limited the use of office space and transport. To date, these regulations have resulted in a provision on the "severe management" of the party. The population, judging by the feedback from the localities, approves of the streamlining of party life.

However, some analysts point out that anti-corruption measures lead to a decrease in local activity, including economic activity. Other local leaders avoid economic experiments, do not make contacts with entrepreneurs, believing that "it is better not to take risks." In a speech in July, Xi Jinping noted the successes in "self-management" of party organizations, but warned against "blind optimism." The movement to crack down on corruption, the leader said, still has a long way to go.

Charter changes are expected

In the realm of ideology, Xi Jinping and his associates are proposing a "Chinese dream" of a "great national rejuvenation." The General Secretary of the CPC Central Committee gave a key speech on this at the National Museum two weeks after his election. Probably, this thesis will also be heard at the 19th Congress as a reinforcement of calls for the implementation of the second "goal of the centuries" - the transformation of China into a prosperous, powerful, democratic, culturally advanced and harmonious modern socialist state by the centenary of the founding of the PRC (2049). The achievement of the first "goal of the centuries" by the centenary of the Communist Party of China (2021) - building a "xiaokang" society, which is interpreted as average prosperity, comparative well-being - will be announced in advance at the upcoming congress.

In the party itself, they are talking about the forthcoming introduction of amendments and additions to the statute of the CPC at the congress. They have already been voiced at a recent meeting of the Politburo and a plenum of the Central Committee. According to the published information message, the amendments include "key theories and strategic ideas" to be presented at the congress, the latest development of Marxism, a new concept of management (an idea of which can be obtained from Xi Jinping's book "On public administration»).

According to unofficial information, in the course of the amendments, Xi Jinping's name is supposed to be included in the founding document of the party. If these data are confirmed, he will become the third politician immortalized in the charter of the Communist Party after Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping. In addition, he will become the second person after Mao Zedong, whose name will be included in the party "constitution" during his lifetime.

The current version of the charter states that the CPC is guided in its activities by Marxism-Leninism, as well as "the ideas of Mao Zedong, the theory of Deng Xiaoping, the important ideas of the triple representation (productive forces, culture and the general population) and the scientific concept of development." By tradition, the leader of each leading generation must bring something of his own, conceptual, to this list. The 6th Plenum of the 18th CPC Central Committee formally defined the status of General Secretary Xi Jinping as the leading "core" of the CPC Central Committee, and it is possible that this provision will also be included in the charter.

According to some local analysts, the inclusion of Xi Jinping's name in the CCP's charter, as well as the "core party" provision, could serve as a political basis for extending his tenure beyond 2022-2023. For now, however, this is just speculation.

Who is on the doorstep?

And yet the main intrigue of the congress remains the composition of the highest echelon of the party - the Standing Committee of the Politburo of the CPC Central Committee. According to the tradition that has developed in recent decades, it should include two figures under the age of 57 who will be trained as successors to the heads of the party / state and government. In addition to them, the PC PB should include five more important figures. As before, they will distribute among themselves the posts of the heads of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress of China (NPC, the country's highest legislative body), the All-China Committee of the People's Political Consultative Council of China (CPPCC, the highest advisory body representing the Patriotic United Front), one politician in the positions a senior member of the Secretariat of the CPC Central Committee will oversee the sphere of ideology and propaganda, another one will head the party's secret service - the CPC Central Commission for Discipline Inspection, the seventh as vice premier will deal with economic issues.

However, Xi Jinping can show his extraordinary approaches to party life here too. Those in the know say that at a recent meeting in Beidaihe, a resort town on the shores of the Bohai Bay of the Yellow Sea, a proposal was made to reduce the number of PC PB members from seven to five. At the same time, the current head of the Chancellery of the CPC Central Committee (analogous to the administration of the head of state) Li Zhanshu, the secretary of the party committee of the economic center of the country of Shanghai Han Zheng and the party leader of the rich southern province of Guangdong Hu Chunhua were allegedly mentioned as likely members of the new composition.

Experts name several more names, including the head of the Organizational Department of the CPC Central Committee Zhao Leji, Vice Premier of the State Council Wang Yang, who was recently awarded the Russian Order of Friendship "for his great contribution to strengthening relations."

Among the relatively "young" and promising politicians, the 57-year-old secretary of the party committee of Chongqing, Chen Miner, stands out. However, he has not yet been "run-in" in the Politburo, which reduces his chances of getting into its Standing Committee.

Earlier it was said that of the current members of the synclite, in addition to Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang, the head of the party disciplinary body, Wang Qishan, may also stay at the highest party level, despite reaching the unspoken pension threshold. However, rumors about corruption in his environment, as well as a possible serious illness of the politician, seem to remove the issue.

But who can succeed Xi Jinping, the future leader of China's "sixth generation" of leaders? It's easier to say who won't - it's Sun Zhengcai, who was dismissed on the eve of the congress from the post of head of the party committee of the city of central subordination of Chongqing. Since 2012, party veterans have predicted him the post of the next chairman, or at least the premier of the State Council of the PRC. However, during a recent visit to the metropolis by an inspection team from the center, serious claims were made against Sun Zhengcai. After an internal party investigation, his case was referred to the judiciary.

For this reason, the question of a "successor" remains open. Against the background of rumors about the "third term" of Xi Jinping, it is not a fact that the situation will become clearer at the end of the 19th Congress.

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